By David Ljunggren and Kelsey Johnson
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada is planning a “fairly worst-case scenario” in which new waves of coronavirus would eventually hit the public health system and send the death toll, officials said on Friday.
Under the scenario, there would be a major peak later this year, followed by a number of smaller peaks and valleys that would stretch to January 2022. Each peak would exceed the capacity of the health system.
The system has so far managed to deal with the outbreak, but evidence shows that when it appears to be plagued by burglaries, “mortality is really going up very high,” Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam said in a briefing.
Tam declined to say what the chances were for the worst case scenario that would happen.
Several of the 10 provinces in Canada have reported higher numbers of COVID-19 infections as the economy recovers and restrictions on social gatherings are relaxed.
“We are planning for a reasonably worst case scenario consisting of a large ‘Fall Peak’ followed by ongoing ‘Peak and Valleys’ in which resource requirements are periodically more than the … capacity of the health system to manage,” said Federal health officials in a modeling prediction.
“Increases in infection rates are expected as we continue to support economic and social activities, even with appropriate controls in place.”
Potentially complicating factors include an outbreak of flu at the same time as a resurgence of coronavirus, officials said. The cumulative death toll in Canada could be as high as 9,115 until August 23, up from the current 9,015, the forecast predicted.
The Pacific province of British Columbia on Thursday reported “a rapid increase in recent weeks in younger people” due to celebrations and other social events.
Ottawa said refugees who worked frontline health care jobs in Canada during the COVID-19 crisis will be given a one-time path to permanent residency.
(Additional report by Julie Gordon in Ottawa; Edited by Chizu Nomiyama, Grant McCool and David Gregorio)
