Alabama is making an effort in late summer to reduce its growing COVID-19 cases before schools reopen.
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey announced a statewide mask order on Tuesday that expires July 31, just over two weeks from the time it went into effect, hoping to lessen the state’s fugitive escalation. of coronavirus cases.
“I am trusting the people of Alabama to do the right thing and wear a mask,” said Ivey. “With everyone’s cooperation, we can delay the spread of this virus.”
But can the numbers drop fast enough that school systems and parents feel comfortable reopening for fall? And will the results of this two-week push be seen in time for parents to make tough decisions?
Dr. Rachael Lee, an infectious disease physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, said it takes time to take steps such as closing businesses and requiring that facial masks begin to show declines in the number of cases and that the order of the masks it should be extended at the end of the month.
“If you look at the requests for our home stay, it took about a month and even longer to see some of those numbers,” Lee said. “I suspect that they will continue to see these numbers in two-week increments and then they will make an additional determination on whether or not we should continue to mask.”
Dr. Don Williamson, president of the Alabama Hospital Association and a former state health official, said just before the Ivey mask order was announced that even short-term “augmentation” measures can have a noticeable impact. .
“This is one of those rare diseases where we control our future,” said Williamson during a press conference with US Senator Doug Jones. “If we, for the next 10 days to two weeks, put on masks, avoid large group gatherings, maintain six feet of social distance, wash our hands, and do all the things we’ve talked about now, it seems like forever. We will make a significant difference in the transmission of this virus. “
Some school systems, such as Mobile and Selma, announced plans to move all the lessons online to start the year. But most plan to reopen school buildings next month, while offering a virtual option.
However, before the results of the mask requirement are seen, many schools are asking parents to make a decision and stick to it. Will they send their children back to the classroom? Or will they stick with online learning?
Williamson said he wants schools to be able to open to students in the fall, but current high COVID rates could make reopening unsafe for the students themselves and especially for parents, grandparents, teachers and other school employees. they can contract the virus. students and suffer worse results because they are at greater risk.
He said schools in Europe have been able to reopen in some settings without seeing big spikes in the cases, but Williamson said those locations had recovered from their worst outbreaks, while the Alabama curve is still going up. Alabama already saw more new cases of coronavirus in July than in any other month, and now hospitalizations and deaths are also reaching new highs.
“They brought them back to classrooms with a tremendous amount of social detachment, and they are bringing them back to classrooms in a community where viral transmission is dramatically reduced due to the actions they have already taken,” said Williamson. “So my concern is if we find ourselves in a situation where we still have significant viral transmission in progress, and can’t maintain a six-foot social distance in the classroom, will we have those same kinds of results? I don’t know the answer to that. “
The hope is that a significant increase in the use of masks by the general public, especially during high-risk interactions, where people can stay less than six feet for 15 minutes or more, may delay the rapid increase in new cases in Alabama before hospitals fill up and stricter measures are required to close schools or businesses.
Even in Alabama, there are indications that mask requirements may have an impact. Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed said this week that the number of new daily cases in the city had dropped in half a month after implementing a mask order, though those numbers fluctuate widely.
At the UAB, Lee said that the number of infected healthcare workers in the hospital decreased significantly after implementing a universal masking policy.
But it could take much longer than two weeks.
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, said this week that the country could control the epidemic if everyone wore a mask for up to eight weeks. He also warned that “the fall and winter of 2020 and 2021 will probably be one of the most difficult times we have experienced in American public health.”
Dr. Scott Harris, Alabama State Health Officer, when he announced the state order with Ivey, said the masks are one of the few tools the state has to limit the spread of the virus.
“Everyone asks ‘Is it necessary to close the economy?’ And the answer is ‘No, not if people will cooperate with the orders we have,’ “Harris said.” Facial coatings or masks will prevent disease transmission. “
“We do not have an effective vaccine, we do not have a highly effective treatment, we do not have many other options, but we do have the capacity to try to prevent the spread from person to person. “
If Alabama’s mask attempt doesn’t work, and cases continue to escalate as schools open, Williamson said the state may be facing a shortage of the entire system of hospital beds, personnel and personal protective equipment that already they are scarce.
“There is nothing inherent in the virus that means it will stop circulating,” said Williamson. “If we find rapid transmission of the virus in August, in September, well, we have a flu season that started in Alabama in October.
“And the combination of influenza, which fills our hospitals, along with COVID-19, which fills our hospitals, that’s the scenario where I’m very concerned about the capacity of the entire system. So I think it is imperative that we get this under control before we also have to deal with the flu season. “
Williamson said the way to keep businesses and schools open and for hospitals to be overrun is to get people to wear masks as much as possible.
“The mask really is the gateway to the most normal businesses,” said Williamson. “If people want their businesses to be open and not have to worry about closure, it’s really about wearing masks.”
And it’s not just about reopening schools. All kinds of decisions need to be made right now about what will happen this fall in Alabama.
“If there is any hope that something looks like a normal SEC football season,” said Williamson, “he is doing something now and wearing masks.”
