California seems to be turning a corner after a swell of cases of coronavirus and hospitalizations earlier this summer, though the path to economic recovery is more cautious than ever.
Hospitalization has dropped to its lowest point in nearly six weeks, new caseloads are slower and the death toll has begun to level – all “encouraging” signs that the virus’s grip has been declining in recent weeks, Govin Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. But that positive news came as many out-of-work Californiaers feared waiting for important decisions on benefits and unemployment policies.
“These are specific pieces of evidence that align with some optimism that what we do as a state … that what you do works,” Newsom said, adding, “we want to continue to see these numbers go down.”
In early July, Californians who became ill began flooding hospital beds in the early weeks of the summer – causing Newsom to shut down more sectors of the economy by the middle of the month. Hospitalizations rose rapidly on July 21 to a total number of more than 7,000 patients; Since then, California has discharged a whopping 22% of patients and hit 5,499 as of Tuesday.
New cases have also dropped in the meantime – a trend that was initially questioned after a series of errors caused the state to accidentally give up 300,000 lab records. Over the weekend, the state began processing those records, which counties are now analyzing and adding to their own data platforms. Of the state’s nearly 12,000 new cases Tuesday, about half represented backward data, Newsom said.
On Wednesday, counties in California reported 8,346 new cases and 161 new deaths, according to data compiled by this news organization.
“It’s a little more optimistic,” Newsom said of the declining business numbers. “Again, another indication that we are turning a corner on this pandemic.”
Still, California is on the highest plateau of COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began. After reporting the most dead ever in a single day – 215 – on July 31, the seven-day average of the state of the stars over the last two weeks has remained above 125. By mid-July, that average had never scratched 100.
These numbers are likely to stabilize throughout mid-August and the sickest patients die under the growing wave of hospitalizations, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. The seven-day average for weekly deaths fell from Tuesday to 135.
After that, Chin-Hong said, new cases and hospitalizations will hit another trough – before people get antsy to go out, schools and businesses will reopen and parties will reopen, all of which could lead to another peak of infections in the early autumn.
“It’s going to be COVID’s unlucky roller coaster,” Chin-Hong said.
Newsom, for his part, seems determined to prevent that fate. When asked about the next potential wave of reopening, he said his office will use a “much more intentional and conscious mindset” to promote safe practices and behavior.
How many of those decisions will play out, however, remains largely in the air. Even though California has submitted some 7.31 million workers for unemployment since mid-March, the state has not provided payments to more than 1 million of those whose nominations remained in the bureaucratic process. That burden only increased with the loss of the $ 600 weekly federal unemployment dollars at the end of July.
At the same time, the future of the statewide eviction moratorium is in flux after the California Judicial Council said it would likely end the Sept. 1 ban – potentially leaving millions of tenants on the hook.
Even as Newson rattles off various strategies on Wednesday, his team will consider jumping the economy – such as licensing for small businesses and developing a new tax credit – the mayor does not offer direct promises to either side. His team plans to process unemployment dollars “as quickly and efficiently as possible” while he waits for the federal government to step down, he said.
Economist Stephen Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy, said Newsom’s biggest focus should be on tuning the spread of coronavirus. Until cases are consistently low, complete economic recovery is impossible, Levy added.
“He can not mint money, and we do not have the means for budget to set up even four hundred or six hundred dollars,” Levy said. “He has really limited options, except to get the pandemic under control – and he’s a bit limited there, too.”
