The Bulls saw a lottery draw favor them Thursday night, when they paid in 8.5 percent odds to jump from their no. 7 pre-lottery slot to the no. 4 general choices.
Who should (or will) take them? It is difficult to fully measure the new front office at this point, but executive vice president of basketball concerts Artūras Karnišovas has repeatedly emphasized that talent will be the ultimate determinant of who is selected. Need has no bearing.
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“I do not think your needs are addressed at 4. You get the best talent,” Karnišovas said in a conference call to the lottery. “That’s what we’ll be looking for with the highest upside player.”
In comments from the past, Karnišovas also described his preferred style of play as high tempo, ball movement oriented and red-and-react style.
With all that in mind – but without reading too far into it all – here is a preliminary, post-lottery board of possible prospects that the Bulls could consider at no. 4. Not a ranking, necessarily, but a tiered listing of the guys who might be there, and what they bring.
Star Swings
LaMelo Ball, G, Illawarra Hawks
The top of your concept board is for swinging. This is a doctrine that Karnišovas seems to live by, and rightly so.
Well, Ball is the biggest swing in the class, and he has the hottest topside. 6-foot-8 lead guards with voluminous dribble packages, transcendent passing ability (especially on the fastbreak) and uncontrollable feel for the game come round on a generational basis, not annually.
Does all that make him perfect? Of course not. No such prospect exists, especially in this class. His areas for improvement – perimeter shooting, defense, finishing on the rim through NBA competition – should appeal to every team.
But in the Bulls ‘position, the scene would be: Snag him for the whole thing, coach shoved selection out of him (deep, disputed pull-ups 3s permeate his tape), and hope his length and activity keep him afloat’ the defensive end while picking up muscle. He will need that for the finishing touch as well, though he has a cunning arsenal. Even with hesitant stats, choosing to play professionally in the NBL’s NBA lineup would help, not hurt.
Ball’s playmaking chops at its size are a tailor-made package for the modern NBA. Over time, that could help pull the Bulls offense out of the basement.
Anthony Edwards, G / F, Georgia
This is a draft that lacks consensus among analysts and NBA teams. But most seem to agree that Edwards is one of the guys with real superstar potential.
It’s easy to see why. Decide on season-long shooting percentages for a moment, and Edwards’ three-level scoring ability jumps off the screen. He is comfortable picking up from 3, makes hard shots, and comes to the cup (69.4% edge shots) and free throw line (.339 FTr). His 6-3, 225-pound frame – with a winger reported in the 6-8 / 6-9 range – and explosive athletics combine to paint the picture of a player who will punish NBA defenses of the day 1.
Those shooting percentages (40.2% FG, 29.4% 3P) highlight decision-making concerns that top the list of areas for improvement for Edwards, even if they can be attributed in part to a less-than-ideal team situation at Georgia. Losses in focus on the defensive end are there as well, but his physical tool can make him ineffective at both ends if he applies himself. It would be a surprise if he slipped to No. 4.
Deni Avdija, F, Maccabi Tel Aviv
If you are sick of this term, apologize. But Avdija is a unicorn-ish perspective. At 6-feet-9, he is graceful on the fastbreak, a pinpoint pick-and-roll and post passer, solid ball handler and powerful finisher when he comes downhill. He influences the game in multiple facets, and was able to increase key pieces on the Bulls’ roster with his play and IQ – two qualities that will only be enhanced by wider open spaces in the NBA.
But, speaking of space, Avdija’s out-of-shoot (33.3% from 3,183 attempts in 2019-20) is its NBA’s biggest red flag, especially given a successful sub-60% of the free-go line . His form is organized, but he has a tendency to play with his legs and step out of his jumper instead of staying in his posture. As such, the misses have some shaky bricks.
Another overarching question for Deni: What position is he in the league, primarily defensive? As a little forward, he struggled to keep up with faster wings and guards. In power transmission (more likely in this day and age) he should have the verticality to hang with most, but he is often reversed by dog blades.
The talent is there, and so, it seems, is the station. For the Bulls, numbering him no. 4 be a bet on the jumper pandering to the outside, his head and his background, who has an Israeli League MVP in 2019-20. At 19, he is the youngest player to deserve that honor.
RELATED: 2020 NBA Mock Draft 7.0: Post-Lottery Edition
James Wiseman, C, Memphis
Even with a deep harvest of international perspectives, Wiseman is one of the larger unknown howmany in this year’s concept. He was the No. 1 player in his class who came out of high school but only played three games at Memphis before losing his NCAA-qualification.
Well, he showed up in those games – averaging 19.7 points, 10.7 handballs and three blocks per game, and shot 76.9% from the floor – but it was against tough competition from the start of the season. Without a year of tape to see steps as a decision maker and defender in space, it is difficult to measure where his game stands.
For his tools (7-foot-1 with a reported 7-5 wing span, and sculpting) and the potential to combine elitist blocking and edge-running with a sprint from outside shooting on the line, he is worth a look. Karnišovas preaches talent, and Wiseman oozes it.
Possible best player options available
Onyeka Okongwu, F / C, USC
On the defensive end, Okongwu is widely praised for his versatility, both guarded at the edge and in space. He shot 3.5 shots per 40 minutes in his New Year’s Eve, even somewhat underestimated at 6-foot-9 – springboard jump and a reported 7-1 winger are two of his biggest tools. He is the prototype of the modern defensive center, and a force on the roll and catching lobes at the offensive end.
Wendell Carter Jr. brings many of the same defensive attributes to the center field, and, given opportunity, space to grow as a facilitator and shooter on offense. Karnišovas would probably not let this possible dismissal take the 19-year-old out of USC if the Bulls’ board has him as the best talent available if they choose. But it would certainly make for an interesting logjam in the front between Okongwu, Carter and Markkanen. Like Wiseman would.
Obi Toppin, F, Dayton
Toppin was immediately ridiculed by the Bulls on the ESPN Draft Lottery broadcast, sparking widespread discussion among fans about the merits of his game. Let’s start by saying that the Dayton product in 2019-20 took a litany of National Player of the Year awards for a reason. When he averaged 20 points per game shooting at 63.3% in his second season, he scored skills in every conceivable facet: streaming to the edge for sensitive defensive jams, flying out in transition, digging in the post, roll in PnR and even step outside the arc (39% 3P on 82 total attempts).
There are also reasons he is not a slam dunk prospect. For once, he will turn 23 in March. Questions also persist about the defensive end – both in terms of his lateral movement and situational awareness. Toppin is a certified baller who could help the Bulls in the scoring (and scoring) department tomorrow. Whether that translates to long-term value remains to be seen in the eyes of the front office.
Killian Hayes, G, Ulm
Hayes may have even heard in the star swing section based on his playing abilities – like Ball, he is a big lead guard (6-foot-5) with a variety of inventive passes at his disposal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJoF2IPXEEM
But, unlike Ball, the shooting of efficiency does not seem to register as alarming in Hayes’ case. Although he hit just 29.4% of his 3-point attempts over 33 games this season, he shot 48.2% from the field and made 87.6% of his free throws this season while plaguing float and pull -up games posted. The most common criticism of his game is a lack of an off-hand. But all the other pieces seem to be there for Hayes to be a difference maker in the NBA.
High-Upside Need-Fillers
Karnišovas dismisses a question of any need – skill or position – that the Bulls will seek to address in the draft. But, would the Bulls look forward to earning the no. 4-slot in an asset-stack-type move, some names with high ceilings that also happen to fill holes on the grid.
Isaac Okoro, G / F, Auburn
Devin Vassell, F, Florida State
Flip a coin between Vassell and Okoro if you’re the Bulls. Both project as high-upside 3-and-D-type wings, but both bring different virtues and disadvantages.
Okoro is an atomic athlete with a brick wall attachment – ready from day 1 to slash and (with both hands) make his way to buckets at the NBA level, even through contact. His continued defense on ball made Jimmy Butler equalize. But he’s still one with questions about his jumper after shooting 28.6% from 3 and 67.2% from the benevolent streak in his lone season at Auburn.
Vassell comes with a clear perimeter shot – he contained 41.5% of his 3-point looks (3.5 tries per game) in 2019-20; its release is high and smooth – and has a bit more length. Evaluators rave about his unnatural IQ and quick instincts as a team defender, both of which are evidenced by the 4.2 “files” (steals plus blocks) per 40 minutes he stepped up his second season. But he is not quite the athlete that is Okoro.
Both offer the opportunity to plug the small forward of the Bulls of the future slot, and above starting potential. Both seem destined for the 5 – 15-pick range, along with …
Tyrese Haliburton, G, Iowa State
Another big lead guard, Haliburton stands at 6-foot-5 with a winger reported in the 6-7 to 6-8 range, and is one of the more flexible pick-and-roll operators in the class. While there are questions about his stilted stroke, it’s hard to argue with a 41.9% mark of 3 (5.6 attempts per game) and 35-for-68 (51.5%) field goal shooting on spot-ups in 2019 -20.
Halbiurton’s slender build also raised eyebrows, but his height helped him produce 2.5 steals per game last season. He is a Swiss Army knife player who will immediately plug into any role the Bulls would prescribe him. Like Ball, Avdija and Hayes, his divisive ability is particularly intriguing for a roster in need in that department.
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