[ad_1]
© Georgi Kozhukharov
A parliament with six or seven players with no possibility of anyone reaching a majority, retaining the leading political force and the largest opposition party, returning the right of the city to the National Assembly and a new project with potential in the balancer’s niche traditional MRF – The latest forecasts show sociological agencies days before the ordinary parliamentary elections on April 4.
Dnevnik published his forecasts, published in the last week. Most of the surveys were conducted in the last week of March, with the exception of Market Links, conducted from March 18 to 25. In the graph, the agencies are arranged in order of publication of the surveys. These preferences are only among those who are determined to vote. The results of the “Will – NFSB” coalition are also given, which, although below the 4% threshold to enter the National Assembly, is approaching and its result may vary according to participation. The Market Links study has no data on this coalition.
Read the most important questions and answers about the elections here.
When the columns are indicated in the graph, the exact predictions for each match are displayed. By choosing one of the legend formations, only its results can be clearly seen according to various studies.
The table shows the results for all parts for which there is data in the surveys and the exact data from the surveys.
The big unknown: the number of voters
According to all the polls, the biggest unknown in the upcoming elections is the number of voters who will go to the polls, and the coronavirus has been identified as a major player in the electoral race, as fears of infection could influence entire groups of voters. voters for results.
Sociologists predict that lower turnout will bring a bonus to large parties that have a strong electoral core and can easily mobilize their voters, while greater interest in voting will increase the chances that smaller parties and new players will become dependent. of the protest vote.
With all the conditions that COVID-19 fears could change voters’ decision to go to the polls or not at the last minute, the agencies provide the following provision to vote:
“Market links”: 46%
REGO – 74.30%
Alpha Research: 51%, and 2.6 to 2.8 million people are expected to vote.
AFIS – 38-40%, between 2.5 and 2.7 million voters, and it is explicitly specified that the activity is calculated on the basis of the number of voters on the voter rolls.
Trend: 47%, between 2.5 and 2.9 million voters
Gallup: 50% based on actual nationwide voters and about 40% based on voter rolls, between 2.6 and 2.9 million voters.
About the surveys:
The Market Links survey was funded and implemented jointly by BTV and Market LINKS, conducted among 1,026 people over 18 years of age in the country in the period from March 18 to 25, 2021. by the methods of direct personal interview and online survey.
The REGO survey was conducted among 1004 adult Bulgarian citizens in the period from March 25, 2021 to March 28, 2021. The selection of respondents is made by quotas based on demographic characteristics: type of settlement, sex and age. The primary information recording method is a direct standardized interview using tablets. The study was carried out with own funds.
The study of “Alpha Research” was carried out in the period from March 27 to 30, 2021. of “Alpha Research”, it is published on the agency’s website and is carried out with its own funds. The survey was conducted among 1,007 adult citizens across the country. A stratified sample in two stages was used with a quota on the main sociodemographic characteristics. The information was collected through a standardized direct interview with tablets in the households of the respondents.
The AFIS survey was conducted in the period of March 26-30, 2021. 1000 adult Bulgarian citizens were interviewed directly “face to face” outside their homes in a quota sample with the help of portable computing devices. The study was carried out with own funds.
The Trend survey was commissioned by Nova Broadcasting Group and was conducted between March 26-30, 2021 through face-to-face interviews among 1,005 people over the age of 18.
The Gallup poll was conducted “face to face” with tablets between March 24 and March 31 among 1,013 people, commissioned by the Bulgarian National Radio. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is ± 3.1% for 50%.
