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ACTS publishes opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive debate.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Ivan Kostov describes the great dangers for Bulgaria in the coronavirus crisis.
– Good afternoon, Mr Kostov. How are you, are you healthy?
– Yes, quarantined.
– Mr Kostov, on Wednesday the EC forecasts for Bulgaria an economic decline of 7.2% this year and GDP growth of 6% next year. Such development is expected for the entire EU. What do you think about this forecast?
“That does not surprise me”. This prognosis is within the expected damage of the quarantine and the state of emergency.
– The current economic crisis is said to be the worst since the Great Depression.
“It could be”. And do you know why? People experience it much more seriously than in previous epidemics. It somehow affected humanity very painfully and emotionally. There have been more terrible epidemics, but people have not experienced them that way. The global world of the Internet, communications and modern media is of great importance to this.
– If we return to Bulgaria: from where and why does the Bulgarian economy suffer more?
– Probably mainly because the service sectors such as tourism, restaurants, hotels, which are important for the Bulgarian GDP, are affected. The second reason is that, throughout the supply chain, the crisis affects all Bulgarian companies participating in the international division of labor. The Bulgarian economy is linked to the EU and is now suffering damage from abroad. Third, people are reconsidering many of their pre-crisis needs, such as flying, traveling, vacation. See also the big drop in buying new cars.
– You mentioned the global world a while ago. In it, and also in Bulgaria, two opposite concepts collide. According to one, the restrictive measures are correct. According to the other, they are massive psychosis and panic. What you think
– It depends on what stage of development of the epidemiological situation we are in. 22-23 countries in Europe are known to have exceeded the peak of active cases of the disease. In other words, for these countries there is no risk of overloading the health systems. In these countries, the reproduction rate also decreases, that is, the risk of transmitting the disease. But this is not the case in Bulgaria. The EU has already warned us, but it can be seen with the naked eye. In our country, those infected continue to grow exponentially. It may not be exponential, but the number of active cases continues to grow. However, it is reassuring that the number of people needing intensive care is not growing. In Bulgaria, the number of people entering hospitals is increasing, but this is a matter of policy. They are often accepted because they are considered critical due to age or comorbidities.
Let me also say the following: We have problems with the indicators of the epidemic. First, they are not collected according to sound statistical methodology. For example, the “dead” indicator is unclear, that is, how to assess whether a person has died from COVID-19 or from another previous illness. The following is very disturbing to me: There are about 200-240 people for whom we do not know whether they have recovered or died. The average hospital stay for mild cases, until a patient is cured, is approximately 14 days. In severe and moderate clinical cases, cure or death takes approximately 31 days. That is, after approximately 23 days, the result for the average patient should be clear. 23 days ago in Bulgaria we had 676 people infected, at the same time they reported that 440 recovered and died. Where are the others? This illustrates my thesis on the insufficiently reliable statistical indicators used by the government.
“Okay, back to the question: danger or panic?”
– It is precisely this uncertainty that does not allow me to answer your question. When there is no accurate information, the answers are emotionally desirable.
– And what will be the consequences of the pandemic and the recession for the world, but especially for the EU? Globalization or renationalization? A more cohesive or crumbling EU?
– It depends on how the European countries will emerge from the pandemic. Currently there is no free movement of people, nor free movement of capital, because nobody is planning investments and nobody is exporting capital, especially when they cannot assess the risk in the neighboring country. Many key questions for the EU are waiting for an answer. For example, if the productions on which the national security of the EU depends can be in third countries. And I’m not just talking about health related industries.
For the moment, the security of European citizens is at the forefront, so we must consider whether we need a different policy on capital movements, the movement of goods and people. And if the EU continues to think only about how to preserve neoliberal values, it will move away from reality. We are all afraid of the economic future. Are you sure, for example, that people will travel again? Because I can’t answer that question.
– But there have always been epidemics.
– Yes, lately they often become fellow people. How do you live with that Returning to the EU: In my opinion, you cannot face very specific challenges. For example: should workplace safety measures be increased and specified according to the nature of the job? Because in a human epidemic, it must be ensured that they do not get sick when they work. See what happens to our medical staff. Why do so many doctors get sick?
Well, because the security measures in their workplaces are not enough. I do not see the potential in the EU to deal with such problems. Since I don’t see any potential at WHO. Take a look at their website – they can’t even provide the necessary and accurate information about the development of the pandemic. They publish a ridiculous table. Do they handle the process accordingly? Key indicators are not weighed and as such are not informative. So let’s go back to your question, because this is the big question: are international organizations viable or too far from people?
– Let’s go back to Bulgaria, where lately it is said that the crisis has consolidated the government. What do you think? Were the government measures correct? Will they bring you political dividends?
“I can’t answer that question.” I will explain why. The Spanish flu is known to come in two waves: first in the winter-spring months, and then it erupts again in the fall, in many places with greater force. And the director of the German Robert Koch Institute, Lothar Wheeler, is already talking about this and reiterating his thesis on collective immunity.
Chancellor Merkel is right to be angry with scientists for saying contradictory things and not explaining the essence of the process. Why did scientists not explain the nature of the crisis from the start, at least to politicians, and have since decided what to say and what not to say? Scientists rely on the theory of so-called “collective immunity” (by the way, their first mathematical model is from 1928). But in the case of COVID-19 it doesn’t work. Two countries made representative samples: the Czech Republic and Austria. And they found that they had mastered the risk to their health systems without the population developing deterrent immunity. It is absurd to say that the crisis in China has calmed down due to the immunity of 60-70% of the population. In other words, the theory does not explain what is happening in this pandemic.
– Let me ask you again: can you make a forecast for Bulgarian politics?
– It all depends on what the second wave shows. Furthermore, in Bulgaria it is not yet clear when we will reach the crest, when we will stop the growth of active cases. Because we don’t even know how many active cases we have. These 200-240 people I’m talking about, have they died, have they recovered? We don’t know. If the first wave of infection is low, the second can be much higher. I am sorry to use this special terminology.
– We have already become specialists …
– I want to say that for seven years I have ONLY dealt with risk and crisis management and my approach is in line with international standards. It requires first calculating whether the crisis is under control. Is the health crisis in Bulgaria over? It is not. Is the economy dominated? Even less. When will these crises be handled? It cannot be said because it is unclear how the relaxation of the measures will work.
Can risks be managed as imagined by the Bulgarian national operational headquarters? They will go directly into the outbreaks, into the ghettos and contingents, they will monitor the risk groups, the people in the front line, etc. and it will suppress the infection. Except they can’t do it like in South Korea. We are very far from them. South Korea has controlled the increase in active cases in just 28 days, and we in Bulgaria are already in day 50. How is this strategy implemented with institutions as weak as ours?
– And the people in Bulgaria? What do you think they need right now? Faith, hope, solidarity, economic perspective? Will this crisis unite society?
– You know, we don’t talk about it. We are some of them, more European than European. Let us admit that the crisis is hitting different components of Bulgarian society with different strength. As you can see, it is erupting in the ghettos, and this needs to be accounted for and countered. Some of the sick and infected children in general are from the ghettos. Maybe in total they are somewhere above 60%. When this happens in Sweden, the next step is taken immediately: how to stop the crisis among these minorities. And here we don’t even dare to ask ourselves this question.
We isolate them. We put the checkpoints on them, break the walls, and come out again. All this does not speak for the future integration of Bulgarian society, on the contrary. If a share is allowed, some communities will suffer severely and, at the same time, these communities will be allowed to be undisciplined, not to observe the laws, not to observe countermeasures. On what basis will Bulgarian society be integrated? This is what I ask and can’t find an answer. They need special care, special policies, special activities.
I can formulate the other part of your question in this way: what about state institutions? For example, do the regional health inspections in Bulgaria, the organs of the Ministry of the Interior, the social assistance system work? Are they doing their job? If they did their job, we would shut down this epidemic like in South Korea. But obviously we are not. And why can’t we?
Because we lack competition; because the institutions have not complied with the laws of the country and now have no plans to counter the epidemic disaster; because they have no preparation and training; There are no resources and stocks reserved. But when these key institutions and systems don’t work, we can’t expect results like in South Korea. And if there are no adequate institutions, how can society be more united? When there are institutions that do not work in the bowels of a society, no response plans have been drawn up during an epidemiological disaster, when a large part of those who work there have not fulfilled their basic obligations: how can we have a more cohesive society? I dont know …
Bulgaria
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