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ACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
It may be cynical to talk about positive trends during this difficult year, but there are some: Bulgaria received an unexpected gift from 121,000 people. Many Bulgarians have returned only at the end of May. Will they stay?
This year we often hear that the Chinese character for the word “crisis” contains two symbols: “danger” and “opportunity.” Linguistically, this is not entirely true, but since John F. Kennedy used this statement in his 1959 speech, it has become a favorite with speakers around the world. We know from history that major cataclysms, and the current COVID-19 pandemic is one of those cataclysms, invariably lead to changes: displacement of people, displacement in social systems, redistribution of goods and, ultimately, changes in the environment. public order.
It may be cynical to speak of positive trends in 2020, when in Bulgaria the number of deaths from Kovid-19 has already exceeded 6000. But there are some.
A gift from 121,000 people
The pandemic is not over, but perhaps we are already seeing a big change: by the end of May, more than 121,000 people have returned to Bulgaria. These data come from a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on the effect of the pandemic on return migration to Bulgaria by Ognyan Georgiev. Similar referrals exist around the world, but the study in question focuses on Bulgaria.
There are no exact data on the migration of Bulgarians. The unified system of civil registration and administrative services (ESGRAON) does not really work due to its bureaucratic nature, and migrants are not required to “unsubscribe”. Therefore, the report’s authors base their conclusions on data from the Border Police and the quarantine system. As the Border Police began transmitting their data only in late March, the numbers are lower, the study authors believe.
Why do they return?
The report also seeks to answer the question of why these tens of thousands of people have decided to return to Bulgaria. An online survey found that the top two reasons for returning were “desire to be around” (46%) and “loss of job” (32%).
The study says that “there is no adequate method to determine how many of them have returned in the long term.” But even so, it is clear that most of them are unlikely to remain. Only 10% of those surveyed said they would not return after the coronavirus crisis and 25% had yet to make up their minds.
And yet, given that Bulgaria has lost 1.3 million people since 1990, roughly a fifth of its population, the return of more than 120,000 is definitely an unexpected gift. By the way, the report also gives examples of possible measures to withhold this “gift”, but at least for now the government has not signaled that it intends to take advantage of this opportunity.
And why would they stay?
The factors why returnees would or would not stay are also interesting: job search, corruption, development of the COVID crisis, social and urban environment. None of them mentioned the new roads, Borissov’s pride, as a factor for a lasting return.
This brings us to one of the visible results of the return: those who returned from abroad were an important part of the protests that went on throughout the summer. And more or less his energy changed public opinion.
Positive side effects
The COVID crisis has brought about other changes, which can be called side effects. One is that this year Bulgaria will have record low death rates from traffic accidents. According to the Interior Ministry, from the beginning of the year to the end of October, 381 people died on the road and 6,143 were injured. Compared to the same period last year, the death toll was 147 fewer and the injured 956 fewer.
The lockdown in the spring also accelerated the long process of e-government, as a result of which the number of services offered by the state increased.
The COVID crisis as a catalyst
Finally, let’s go back to the data on the Bulgarians who returned to Bulgaria during the pandemic. The return of so many people is definitely an opportunity for a country that desperately needs to stop the process called “brain drain”. At this point, it appears that the coronary crisis may become a catalyst for change. Whether this will lead to significant positive transformations in society and government will become clear in the years to come, and the first test will be in the March elections.
Bulgaria
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