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At first glance, it seems paradoxical, but by expelling Tsvetan Tsvetanov from GERB, Borisov did him a favor.
Now that the ruling party loses more and more credibility and the tired Borisov simply delays his rise to power, Tsvetanov is building a new political future. The former second person in GERB speaks in support of the protests – or rather in support of the “demands of the democratic community”, allows early elections and indicates with which formations he would associate in a future parliament – with “Democratic Bulgaria” and with GERB. Today, he is no longer part of the “most hated party” that the GERB has become “in the last 10 months” (that is, after his departure), as Tsvetanov put it in an interview. By the way, it was this period that to some extent erased his political responsibility for the modification of GERB.
However, sociologists do not seem to appreciate Tsvetanov’s efforts. None of the last five opinion polls on electoral attitudes guarantees future political formation a threshold of 1% for the party subsidy. The support they predict ranges from 0.2% to 0.8%. However, at the end of the week, on September 20, an initiative committee will adopt a constituent declaration on the establishment of the Republicans for Bulgaria (RB) political party. The constituent assembly is scheduled for September 27.
How many GERBs will there be in RB?
Tsvetanov’s tours of the country confirm initial predictions that, for some of the people in the new political entity, it will depend on the “most hated party.” And some of the names that were announced show that these are people with a similar political destiny: former GERB mayors Atanas Kambitov (Blagoevgrad), Georgi Ikonomov (Bansko) and Kiril Kotev (Sandanski). All three lost in the last local elections, and Kambitov left the GERB just days before the signal from the Anti-Corruption Fund was announced for irregularities in the management of municipal companies and public procurement during his term as mayor.
Other mayors who also owe their careers to Tsvetanov, such as Kalin Kamenov and Daniel Panov, are not among the “Republicans”. It was Kamenov who opened the GERB meeting in early August with a speech on the successes of the ruling party.
Certainly, however, the migration of “gerberas” is yet to come. The more the instability of power and the insecurity of Boris is felt, the more people will flee. And if GERB is orphaned by Borissov, the other until recently will be the other “father” of the party: Tsvetan Tsvetanov with his new political formation. This is the shortest and probably the easiest path for many, whose political ambitions have been driven by the staff of “Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development”. All these people know Tsvetanov’s methods and will hardly feel like they are in a foreign place. The benefit of former mayors is especially great, as their links with local structures should not be neglected.
As for Tsvetanov himself, he is well aware that the GERB brand is not what it used to be. That is why the reception of people there will probably be moderate. By the way, your discovery is the current Speaker of Parliament Tsveta Karayancheva, but the two are unlikely to meet under the roof of one party.
Chickens are counted in the fall.
From now on, it can be assumed that Tsvetanov’s potential will grow with Borissov’s weakening, but only up to a certain limit. His August forecast for a double drop in GERB votes in the upcoming parliamentary elections has yet to be proven. And it certainly does not mean that these 500,000 votes will go to “Republicans for Bulgaria”. Sociologists have repeatedly explained that many disappointed in GERB also support Slavi Trifonov’s party. Therefore, the battle for GERB’s electoral legacy is yet to come.
However, one thing is clear: the main challenge for Tsvetanov is not to convert the “Republicans for Bulgaria” into GERB-2. Besides, it seems impossible: Borissov is still missing.
YES. row. – The article is from Deutsche Welle.
