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There were 3 options, the measure will affect between 600 thousand and 2 million adults
The cheapest thing for the state, however, was to continue
to give BGN 50 per cap, even in the cold months of 2021.
The minimum pension should be increased by BGN 50 and should be BGN 300 per month from the beginning of next year. At the same time, recalculate the income of between 600 thousand and 2 million adults.
This scenario for pensions will be discussed in the coming days by a coalition council of the governing coalition GERB and United Patriots. After the tripartite party on Monday, the Minister of Social Affairs, Denitsa Sacheva, also spoke about that new calculation.
The goal is, in addition to raising the minimum pension, which patriots insist, increase the income of at least people who currently receive up to 300 BGN per month, described one of the most likely scenarios, the most authoritative weekly newspaper for the elderly “Club 100 ”in its new issue, which hits the market this week.
In such a recalculation with new insurance income, these pensions will be higher than the minimum.
The constant increase of the minimum pension in an amount much greater than the others,
viola
Justice
– if the minimum pension becomes 300 BGN, many of the pensioners will find themselves with a pension equal to it, even if they have paid many more social security contributions than those who have earned only the amount guaranteed by the state. This option will affect the income of nearly 600,000 retirees.
370,062 Bulgarian adults receive between 250 and 300 BGN as of September 2020, according to data from the National Institute of Social Security. This does not include disability pensions. More than 88,000 people have pensions estimated at less than BGN 250, which currently receive the minimum amount guaranteed by the state.
Rough initial calculations showed that in this scenario the expenses of the National Social Security Institute will increase by around 110 million BGN per month, money that the government currently allocates for the 50 extraordinary BGN to each pensioner.
This option is possible
what happens before
at the beginning of
next year
And so to replace the bonuses for all retirees, which the government granted for August, September and October.
On Wednesday, the cabinet allocated another nearly 106 million levs to pay off the third bond early next month.
The extraordinary recalculation of pensions may affect pensions of up to BGN 500, as predicted by a second scenario. Currently, this is the average pension for seniority and seniority. In favor of this option was that it would return most of the justice to the pension system. However, it will certainly cost more than the first one.
The third option was to recalculate all pensions. So far, the National Social Security Institute has made estimates of what would happen if those granted as of December 31, 2019 were recalculated in 2021 with the average insurance income for 2019 of BGN 986.52.
The experts have used two options. In the first case, the recalculation takes place from January 1, after which the Swiss rule does not apply. Option 2 implies that the new calculation is from October 1, before which the money is withdrawn according to the Swiss rule, which is expected to increase by 6.3% in April.
Out of a total of 2,083,600 work pensions granted at the end of 2019, 1,993,800 will be recalculated in both options.
If the change is made from January 1, there will be an increase of 1,648,300 pensions (82.7%), and if it is from October 1 – by 76.9%.
The average pension in the first option reaches BGN 583.45, in the second option the increase is 39% or it will reach BGN 591.91.
Estimates show that between 496.9 and 612.8 thousand pensioners, whose pensions are granted until December 31, 2019, will not receive any increase due to the recalculation.
Even when using a highly updated average monthly insurance income,
between 263 and
278,2 thousand
the retired
continue
to receive
minimum pensions
And between 38.9 and 49.6 thousand with a pension ceiling will not receive any increase.
Separately, 89.7 thousand pensioners receive a pension for work activity for which an individual coefficient is not calculated.
And another about 61.7 thousand pensions are not subject to recalculation at all, because they are not pensions for employment.
The new calculation will cost BGN 316 million per month for option # 1 and BGN 271 million for option # 2.
The third option that is being discussed is that the BGN 50 bonuses continue to be granted to all pensioners in November and December. This is the cheapest option, costing a total of BGN 210 million over the two months. However, it is possible that these bonuses will continue in the next cold months: January, February and March.
Which one will be chosen depends on the estimates of the Ministry of Finance for the budget possibilities.
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