The West has abandoned Armenia

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The West has abandoned Armenia, a Christian democracy in a region dominated by Islamists and dictators, and now has to take care of itself. Neighboring Azerbaijan wants control of Nagorno-Karabakh, and although there has been a formal ceasefire since 1994 – in the language of diplomacy it is called a “frozen conflict” – the last 30 years have been more than a 30-year war. years. writes the British publication The Spectator, cited by the Agency “Attention”.

During that time, at least 3,500 people were killed in border clashes, with the two sides carrying out artillery shelling, sniper strikes, and sending their commandos across the front line. More than 1,200 people died during the escalation, which began in late September. On Monday night, November 9, when Azerbaijani troops captured the strategically important city of Shusha in Nagorno-Karabakh, the parties agreed to a ceasefire. But most Armenians did not like the terms of the agreement. Many protested against him, and Armenians are generally reluctant and ready to continue the war.

For the 150,000 people of Nagorno-Karabakh, the state of preparedness for war is familiar. The capital of the Stepanakert region, which was built during the Soviet era, has many graffiti and monuments celebrating the victories in this conflict. A well-functioning air strike system warns residents in times of danger so they can hide in their bomb shelters. Everyone in Nagorno-Karabakh has relatives who already serve on the front line, or will voluntarily go to the front.

Nagorno-Karabakh is sacred to Armenians. In late September, when full-scale hostilities resumed, some 10,000 Armenians voluntarily took up arms on the first day. Meanwhile, members of the Armenian diaspora of about 11 million, mostly descendants of Armenians who fled the Ottoman Empire during World War I, began sending money and organizing humanitarian aid. Even Kim Kardashian supported Nagorno-Karabakh, proving her position to 67 million followers.

Armenians, including Kim Kardashian, are convinced that Nagorno-Karabakh has always been Armenian and that it became part of Azerbaijan only as a result of Stalin’s machinations. The Armenians, who fought to the death in the early 1990s to secure secession from Nagorno-Karabakh, say they are far better prepared for a fierce fight than the Azerbaijanis. “Azerbaijan is fighting only for territories, and we are fighting for our homeland” – this is the popular mantra among Armenians.

However, the last six weeks of hostilities have shown that courage alone will not go far. Today, oil-rich Azerbaijan has more modern weapons, including unmanned aerial vehicles capable of attacking once impregnable artillery positions in the Nagorno-Karabakh mountains. The authoritarian President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has the support of the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who sees Azerbaijan as part of the great Turkish empire. “Why didn’t the Christian countries come to the rescue?” Ask the Armenians.

Erdogan is accused of secretly providing military support to Aliyev, including allegedly sending battle-hardened Syrian mercenaries to take over the strike forces. Not surprisingly, Armenia believes that it should have received more visible support from the West, not just the writings of Kim Kardashian. Russia, Armenia’s traditional ally, has so far only helped negotiate two truces, which both sides quickly broke. However, it is now unclear how good an ally Putin can be for Armenia. Two years ago, a successful “color revolution” took place in this country, as a result of which Nikol Pashinyan became the country’s prime minister. His government undertook belated democratic reforms, as a result of which some members of the Armenian diaspora returned home, convinced that the country finally had a future. Of course, all of this is now in jeopardy.

This extremely unpopular peace deal turned out to be a catastrophe for Pashinyan, who could be overthrown at any moment. Aliyev was happy to call the deal a “capitulation” because Azerbaijan would gain control of Shusha, as well as some other areas taken from Nagorno-Karabakh.

However, no one can reasonably accuse Aliyev of illegally seizing territories, since formally Nagorno-Karabakh remains part of the territory of Azerbaijan. According to Aliyev, he wants to resettle Azerbaijanis to the land, who were forced to flee during the 1988-1994 conflict, and restore Azerbaijani control over their territory.

Aliyev promised that the ethnic Armenians living there would not suffer any harm. His advisers say that life under the control of Azerbaijan will be better than living in a small illegal state entity that has never been recognized by the international community. After three decades of “slow conflict” and six weeks of fierce fighting, the chances of inter-ethnic harmony in Nagorno-Karabakh are slim.

Armenians still remember the case of Lieutenant Ramil Safarov, an Azerbaijani officer who stabbed and killed his sleeping Armenian counterpart with an ax, with whom he studied under NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in 2004. Aliyev later pardoned him. and today, many Azerbaijanis consider Safarov a national hero. According to the Armenians, if the Safarov case speaks for itself, it means that Aliyev’s promises should not be trusted.

Sofia, Bulgaria