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Dnevnik publishes current data related to the spread of the coronavirus in Bulgaria, provided by the state’s Unified Information System. Below, in the article, you can see graphs that describe the trends of the last months in the main indicators. – the number of infected, dead and cured, the number of patients in hospitals and intensive care units and the relationship between the total number of PCR tests performed and their positive results.
The first table shows data for the previous day, which is often inaccurate for technical reasons. On Sundays and Mondays, the number of new infections and tests tends to drop dramatically, and the reason, according to authorities, is that on weekends many laboratories are not working or working at reduced capacity, and that laboratories and hospitals report the results. with a delay in the unified information system. This, in turn, typically leads to a significant increase in data on new infections, hospitalizations and deaths on Tuesday.
In an attempt to “smooth” incidental peaks and valleys, the leading indicators are indicated in parentheses. the change in% during the last seven days from the day of notification (Monday is compared to the previous Monday, Tuesday to Tuesday, etc.). The arrows show a continuous uptrend in all indicators in recent weeks, which experts say will continue.
Infected, cured, dead
Official statistics report as infected only people for whom a positive PCR test was obtained in one of the state-approved laboratories. So far, data from growing antigen tests are not aggregated. According to a mathematician from the National Operational Headquarters, the real number of infected is eight times higher than the active cases announced (as of November 12, this adds up to about 470 thousand cases).
After October 13, the statistics reports as cured all infected, whose 14-day quarantine has expiredwithout further investigation. All patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged are also considered cured. Victim statistics include people who have died after they have been shown to be infected with a coronavirus. According to this indicator, since the beginning of the epidemic in many countries there has been a dispute about the correctness of the notification, due to the role of concomitant diseases in patients.
How many are the positive tests
Statistical report PCR tests only and only if it is manufactured in state-approved laboratories. The calculation of which part of them are positive is to some extent conditional, since it is done on the basis of the total number of tests of the day, such as the authorities do not distinguish how many of the positive results come from a study for the first time and how many are consecutive for the same patient. However, they can be used as a guide, to the extent that after the abolition of the mandatory negative quarantine test, re-examinations should have decreased.
Hospital treatment
The need for hospital treatment is considered one of the key indicators for the development of the pandemic, since it puts great pressure on the health system and recognizes the capacity of the state to cope with the crisis. In Bulgaria, at the moment, all hospitals in districts with more than 120 infected per 100,000 inhabitants (and now this is the whole country) are obliged to allocate beds for the treatment of COVID-19. Data on how many of them are filled is announced once a week, at the National Operational Headquarters briefing on Thursday. According to data from November 5, about 30% of beds in medical facilities and about 20% of beds in intensive care units are occupied.
According to the indicator of patients per 100,000 inhabitants, which is monitored as the main one in most European countries, Bulgaria currently exceeds 300 out of 100,000, due to the imposition of stricter restrictive measures.
