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Dnevnik publishes current data related to the spread of the coronavirus in Bulgaria, provided by the state’s Unified Information System. Below, in the article, you can see charts that describe the trends of the last months in the main indicators. – the number of infected, dead and cured, the number of patients in hospitals and intensive care units and the relationship between the total number of PCR performed and antigen tests and their positive results.
As of December 23, the data also includes antigen testing. Until that date, the only ones officially recognized by the state were PCR tests. In early December, the state’s chief health inspector, Angel Kunchev, announced that the occult incidence (the number of infected detected by an antigen test but not confirmed by the official PCR) averaged around 10-15%. And currently not all antigen tests are covered, only those performed in laboratories, hospitals and clinics. Many people are tested with the products offered in pharmacies, so there is still a hidden morbidity.
The first table shows the data for the previous day, which is often inaccurate for technical reasons. On Sundays and Mondays, the number of new infections and tests tends to drop drastically, and the reason, according to authorities, is that on weekends many labs are not working or working at reduced capacity, and that labs and hospitals report their results. with a delay in the unified information system. This, in turn, typically leads to a significant increase in data on new hospitalized infections and deaths on Tuesday.
In an attempt to “smooth” the peaks and valleys incidental in parentheses to the main indicators are indicated the change in% during the last seven days from the day of notification based on daily averages (Monday is compared with the previous Monday, Tuesday with Tuesday, but not in absolute terms, but after averaging the period, etc.).
Infected, cured, dead
Until December 23, official statistics reported as infected only to people for whom a positive PCR test was obtained in one of the state-approved laboratories. After this date, the results of the antigen tests obtained there and in the COVID centers are also accepted as official.
After October 13, the statistics reports as cured all those infected, whose 14-day quarantine has expiredwithout further investigation. All patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged are also considered cured. Victim statistics include people who died after they were shown to be infected with a coronavirus. According to this indicator, since the beginning of the epidemic in many countries there is a debate about how correct the notification is due to the role of concomitant diseases in patients.
How many are the positive tests
The calculation of how much of the tests are positive is somewhat conditional, as it is done on the basis of the total number of tests for the day, such the authorities do not distinguish how many of the positive results come from a study for the first time and how many are consecutive for the same patient. However, they can be used as a guide, insofar as re-examinations need to be reduced after exemption from the mandatory negative quarantine test.
Hospital treatment
The need for hospital treatment is considered one of the key indicators for the development of the pandemic, as it exerts great pressure on the health system and takes into account the capacity of the state to cope with the crisis. In Bulgaria, at the moment, all hospitals in districts with more than 120 infected per 100,000 inhabitants (and now this is almost the entire country) are obliged to allocate beds for the treatment of COVID-19. Data on how many of them are filled is announced once a week, at the National Operational Headquarters briefing on Thursday. According to data from November 5, approximately 30% of beds in medical establishments and approximately 20% of beds in intensive care units are occupied.
