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Dnevnik publishes current data related to the spread of the coronavirus in Bulgaria, provided by the state’s Unified Information System. Below, in the article, you can see graphs that describe the trends of the last months in the main indicators. – the number of infected, dead and cured, the number of patients in hospitals and intensive care units and the relationship between the total number of PCR tests performed and their positive results.
Data on newly infected people should be read with the stipulation that as of November they present only a part of the real picture of the country, because they are based only on the results of PCR tests, the only ones officially recognized by the state. The statistics do not include information from rapid antigen tests, although their number has increased dramatically since the beginning of November, when they began to be used in sorting vans in front of hospitals, as well as in COVID centers in major cities. In early December, the state’s chief health inspector, Angel Kunchev, announced that the occult incidence (the number of infected detected by an antigen test but not confirmed by the official PCR) averaged around 10-15%.
The first table shows the data for the previous day, which is often inaccurate for technical reasons. On Sundays and Mondays, the number of new infections and tests tends to drop drastically, and the reason, according to authorities, is that many laboratories are not working or working at reduced capacity on weekends, and that laboratories and hospitals report results. with a delay in the unified information system. This, in turn, typically leads to a significant increase in data on new infections, hospital stays and deaths on Tuesday.
In an attempt to “smooth” the peaks and valleys incidental in parentheses to the leading indicators are indicated the change in% during the last seven days from the day of notification based on daily averages (Monday is compared with the previous Monday, Tuesday with Tuesday, but not in absolute values, but after averaging the period, etc.).
Infected, cured, dead
Official statistics report as infected only people for whom a positive PCR test was obtained in one of the state-approved laboratories. So far, data from growing antigen tests are not aggregated. According to the mathematics of the National Operational Headquarters, the real number of infected is eight times higher than the active cases announced.
After October 13, the statistics reports as cured all infected, whose 14-day quarantine has expiredwithout further investigation. All patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged are also considered cured. The victim statistics include people who died after they were found to be infected with a coronavirus. According to this indicator, since the beginning of the epidemic in many countries there is a dispute about the correctness of the notification, due to the role of concomitant diseases in patients.
How many are the positive tests
Statistical report PCR tests only and only if it is manufactured in state-approved laboratories. The calculation of which part of them are positive is to some extent conditional, since it is done on the basis of the total number of tests of the day, such as the authorities do not distinguish how many of the positive results come from a study for the first time and how many are consecutive for the same patient. However, they can be used as a guide, insofar as re-examinations need to be curtailed after exemption from the mandatory negative quarantine test.
Hospital treatment
The need for hospital treatment is considered one of the key indicators for the development of the pandemic, since it exerts great pressure on the health system and recognizes the capacity of the state to face the crisis. In Bulgaria, at the moment, all hospitals in districts with more than 120 infected per 100,000 inhabitants (and now this is almost the entire country) are obliged to allocate beds for the treatment of COVID-19. Data on how many of them are filled is announced once a week, at the information meeting of the National Operational Headquarters on Thursday. According to data from November 5, approximately 30% of beds in medical establishments and approximately 20% of beds in intensive care units are occupied.
According to the indicator of patients per 100 thousand inhabitants, which is monitored as the main one in most European countries, Bulgaria currently exceeds 300 out of 100 thousand, due to the imposition of stricter restrictive measures.
