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We know about the outbreaks, we control them and we hope they will decrease, as they are at the moment. This was stated by Dr. Dancho Penchev, director of the RHI of Sofia and a member of the National Operational Headquarters in an interview.
The analysis of the incidence in Sofia, a city compared to the incidence in the country, shows: In June and July, the incidence in Sofia was 2 times higher than the national average.
Currently, August and September, it is 4.5 times lower than the national average. This is a consequence of several modeling factors: August and September are holiday periods; There were not enough people in Sofia, the students were not in school, explained Dr. Penchev.
“Sofia as a city and capital for us epidemiologists is a bomb that you don’t know when it will explode.” “What we expect is a gradual increase in morbidity in Sofia, a city, thanks to these modeling factors, especially the current training of students.
Personally, I expect the rate of increase to be small, but we have no clear criteria on which to stand and say. Especially for Sofia, I repeat, if there is not an explosion that drastically changes the situation, a mild trend of increasing infections is expected. I guess it won’t be less than 10-20%, ”said the epidemiologist.
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