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© Nadezhda Chipeva, Capital
After the official data of the last 24 hours shows a record number of people infected by coronavirus in Bulgaria, the mathematician of the National Operational Headquarters Nikolay Vitanov announced to “Nova TV” that a second wave of infection is established.
He added that October will be a month of transition between the situation of August and September and what “awaits us in November.”
His assessment is that November will be critical. “We have to endure to get through the winter relatively well,” he stressed.
His forecast is that by the end of October the number of infected will reach 25,000, compared to 22,306 so far, and the health system must be prepared for such a scenario. He noted that at the moment the proportion of infected, who must be in intensive care units, remains approximately the same, and their absolute number is not expected to exceed 120 so far. he expects the number of hospitalized to reach 1,200 in 971 at this time. However, if the infection exceeds the prognosis and reaches 30,000 people, then 1,800 people are expected to need hospital treatment, which will put pressure on the health system, although it will be able to cope, the mathematician said.
Analyze that if the new infected exceed 500 per day, the health system can tolerate this only within 2-3 weeks.
He repeated his calculations that 1 in 100 Bulgarians is currently a carrier of the virus, infecting 1.24 more. Their calculations show that 160,000 Bulgarians have already encountered the virus and 50,000 are active. The detected cases show 6134 active at this time. According to Vitanov, the actual proportion of deaths from the virus must be multiplied by 200, which means that 0.5% of those infected by the virus die.
