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© Reuters
VUI-202012/01 – This is the name scientists have given to the new mutation in the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus, which sparked a continuing wave of border closures in Europe for air links to the UK. At least 16 million people in the southeast of England, including London, are under maximum containment.
But for now, virologists can provide very little information, their conclusions are “moderately certain” of an increased likelihood of transmission between people and are based on computer modeling and “associations”.
England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty said the new variant, which is also found in Australia, South Africa and Italy, could be delivered up to 70% faster and could increase the R value by 0.4 units or more. indicator 1 means that a carrier infects another person). Given the data so far, the mutation does not appear to increase the risk of serious illness or mortality, according to The Guardian.
A document released Sunday by the Government Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Viral Threats (NERVTAG) read “So far there is not enough data to draw conclusions” on:
– mechanism for further retransmission (even if a person has a larger environment than the coronavirus, the frequency of its reproduction, etc.)
– how these cases are distributed by age groups
– how deadly it is the new strain, after there are reports of 4 deaths in about a thousand cases (but this data must be compared with a comparable set of information)
– whether the mutation protects the coronavirus from antibodies of the human immune system (it is claimed that it has mutated a glycoprotein in the “spines” through which the coronavirus attacks cells, and this is the weak point of the coronavirus because the antibodies “obstruct” the growths and could enter the coronavirus and be destroyed)
– Is it possible to get infected again?es (among 915 people there have been cases of possible reinfection with the new variant, but this indicator must be compared with adequate data to evaluate if VUI-202012/01 has a higher reinfection rate).
In search of more definitive answers, NERVTAG announced that next week they will collect better data to make comparisons on individual indicators, it is verifying if the tests can detect the mutation and the effectiveness of the vaccine will take longer.
So far, more than 4,000 mutations in Sars-Cov-2 have been reported worldwide, of which perhaps only a few are of any significance, says NERVTAG’s Muge Chevik. All viruses, including coronaviruses, continually mutate, so this new variant is not unexpected.
The data accumulated so far is consistent with the understanding that the new marian is more infectious or can spread more effectively, but we have no laboratory confirmation of this or any idea why it is spreading faster, says Stuart Neal . professor of virology at King’s College London, quoted by The Guardian. The strain was linked to 10% to 15% of cases in certain areas a few weeks ago, but last week it jumped to about 60% of cases in London, he added.
What do you care about?
Currently, scientists do not know the effect of changes in the ability of the coronavirus to infiltrate cells in the lungs, throat and nasal cavity by interacting with a receptor called ACE-2.
It is not clear how the assumption that the mutation is more contagious mainly applies to people who simply cannot work from home and are forced to travel and be in contact with other people. The mutation is also likely to spread to specific groups; in the summer, for example, there was a “Spanish strain” simply because the British were on vacation in Spain and they spread across the country.
Therefore, experts prefer to impose new strict measures and make a mistake out of excessive caution, rather than get the situation out of control. According to Dr Chewick, the British authorities are acting decisively in the context of the intentions of millions of Britons to reunite for Christmas and New Years with their loved ones.
There should be more clarity after 2 weeks, ie. around New Years or in the first days of January. The good news is that in the meantime the population is being vaccinated and schools are on vacation. But if the virologists’ worst assumptions are confirmed, an even tighter distance will need to be maintained and students may be forced to stay home, or at least school personnel may be subjected to much stricter controls and tests.
Scientists are still looking for answers to the Sars-CoV-2 mutation, which they think occurs on average twice a month, that is. about 25 mutations separate us from the “original” of Wuhan. If vaccines become the driving force behind the frequency of these mutations, it could spell a flu-like situation: immunization every year based on the forecast for the next seasonal version of COVID-19.
More details are expected later at www.dnevnik.bg.
