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ACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
Berlin ends the era of trust and friendship with Moscow that began under Gorbachev. Moscow also opens a new page. Russia does not expect anything from Europe and does not intend to comply with its opinion and interests. This was written this week by the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Dmitry Trenin, in an author’s article titled “The last page. How the Navalny case changed relations between Russia and Germany,” BNR reported.
When and how did trusting relationships turn into mutual mistrust and sometimes outright hostility? What will be the consequences of this break not only for Germany and Russia, but for the whole of Europe? Is dialogue between Moscow and Berlin possible in the future?
Dmitry Trenin gave the answers to these questions on the “Saturday 150” program on BNR:
Dmitry Vitalievich, in his last article writes that the incident with Navalny has become a turning point in relations between Russia and Germany. But what are the reasons for this break, because the alleged poisoning of the opposition is more of an occasion?
You are correct that the Navalny case is not, of course, a rationale. In the article you read, I say that the situation started to get worse 10 years ago. We are currently witnessing the last stage of the deterioration of relationships. What is important in this case is that the Chancellor openly, personally and publicly blamed the Kremlin, and Putin in particular, for poisoning Navalny with the Novichok chemical weapon. In my opinion, such a statement undermines the personal relationship between the Chancellor and the President. It hinders the restoration of the previous communication channel, despite all its limitations, and ends the period in which the dialogue between Russia and the collective West was maintained through Berlin. There is, of course, a French channel, but the German, for various reasons, mostly economic, but not only, has always been a priority for both Moscow and the West. This channel is now closed.
Judging by the statements of Russian officials, the Kremlin sees no reason to spoil relations with Germany because of Navalny.
Of course, the Kremlin rejects any sympathy for the Navalny poisoning and regards the whole story as a provocation. On the other hand, the Kremlin is realistic. What Foreign Minister Lavrov did not say recently, namely that “the Germans do not consider us human,” adequately reflects the impression created by Germany’s position on the leaders of Russian foreign policy and the Russian state.
How will the deterioration of Russian-German relations affect the situation in eastern Ukraine?
I think that the Minsk process and the Normandy format will lose their practical importance in terms of the role of Germany and France in them. Russia and Ukraine, for example, may agree to another exchange of prisoners. I expect nothing more than the continuation of the truce and the exchange of prisoners.
And in Belarus?
Different scenarios are possible there. In the context of our conversation, I would say that Russia will now act without regard to Europe, because, according to Moscow, Europe has taken a radical anti-Russian position. The European Union and the European Parliament have made very blunt statements. I believe that in the future relations will deteriorate.
How do you assess Russia’s policy in the post-Soviet space? Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems to me that, judging by what we see in Ukraine, and more recently in Belarus, this policy does not seem particularly successful..
You speak too softly about Russian politics. I think in general it has failed. I think that in most cases we cannot speak of politics, but of a mixture of inertia and improvisation. Often in Ukraine, when everything seemed calm and peaceful, this was due not so much to politics as to the sharing of revenues from the oil and gas supply. At the same time very opaque. Politics in Belarus have also failed miserably, and relations with Lukashenko are an example. It is difficult for me to single out a country with which Russia has managed to establish good relations. With some countries relations are more satisfactory, with others they are not at all. However, there are no good examples.
What will be the fate of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project?
I think the fate of the gas pipeline will be sad: it will remain in the sea and no gas will flow through it. Currently, political circumstances do not allow Germany to continue with this project. In addition, there are interests of other players who want Germany to buy gas from other suppliers on other routes. These players are the United States, which has long battled Nord Stream 2, as well as some European countries such as Poland. There is also little enthusiasm for the pipeline in many Western European countries. I believe that the Germans will have to stop this project and suffer corresponding losses.
When we talk about relations between Russia and the West, I think the key word is “mistrust”, “growing mutual mistrust”. What should Russia do or not do to avoid further opposition?
I think that at least Russia should stop fooling around. The Germans complain that the Kremlin has infiltrated the Bundestag. Hacker attacks … I think there is nothing in the Bundestag that could be of interest to Russian foreign policy. I think that Russia should be completely indifferent to political life in European countries: who comes to power, who leaves. Analysis must be done, of course, but interfering in these things in any way, even through the state media, is pointless. Politically, for Russia, Europe is neither a partner nor an adversary. Europe is interesting for Russia economically, technologically and culturally. It makes sense, as far as possible, to develop cooperation in these areas. In political terms, Europe is not united on the most important issues related to Russia, it follows the United States. It should not be thought that one or another combination of politicians, even in the large European capitals, could lead to a change in Europe’s policy towards Russia. I don’t think I’ll live to see this moment. Many others will not experience it either. My pathos boils down to the following call: Let’s stop digging the well, because we’re deep enough in it already!
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