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This is what Professor Rachev reveals in an interview for “Maritsa”:
– Prof. Rachev, the summer heat did not kill the coronavirus. Will winter be successful?
– No, we must distinguish two things: hot and sunny weather kills the virus, but outside, in nature. And the main spread of the virus takes place through mass gatherings of people inside: restaurants, bars, schools. There is no way to have a social distance at the disco or at weddings. A carrier will infect at least 10 people.
So salvation is in nature: going to the mountains, to the nearby forest, to the countryside, is much better than staying at home or having coffee with friends. The downside is that people suddenly realized how much they needed social contact. But now is the time to limit ourselves.
– December started with snow and cold. What awaits us from now on?
– Warm winter, 1 degree above normal. Precipitation will be normal. This is what the current forecasts show.
For example, on the day of St. Nicholas in Plovdiv morning temperatures of 4-5 degrees, lunch – 12-13. Until the middle of the month there will be warm weather with no freezing temperatures. Well, it may be 0 degrees in the morning, minus 1, but it’s not scary, and lunch temperatures will be quite high, given that the December monthly average temperature for the Plovdiv – Stara Zagora region is somewhere between 2- 3 degrees.
However, let’s keep in mind that December is the first winter month: we meet the astronomical winter on December 21, exactly at 12 noon.
There will be a number of surprises throughout the winter, but as we draw the line in late February next year, the winter will be milder and I hope it will be rainier. For now, however, snowfall is unlikely at Christmas and New Years in Plovdiv. However, we will have a more accurate forecast in mid-December.
– But will there be snow in the stations?
– Of course. However, in places of more than 1500 m it is already snowing. I advise people who have the opportunity to escape the dirty air of the city in the mountains.
Outside, the probability of being infected by the leaves, the bark of the trees, the benches, the land of the park is thousands of times less than in the restaurant, the disco, the city flight. This is the truth.
– Are records being set? Will there be more icy days?
“In any case, winter will be winter.” It will rain and there will be snow. No wonder there are freezing days, no one is insured. In the lowlands there will be ice and ice, frozen and slippery sidewalks, the cause of broken legs and arms. It is normal, the fact is that these icy days will be less frequent and their duration will be shorter.
This means a warmer winter. It’s not that the sun is stretching and the temperatures are above 10 degrees. Here and in the middle of the week the temperatures in Plovdiv dropped to minus 5, minus 6 degrees.
– Will the rain be enough?
– Apart from a warm winter, normal rains await us. Even the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts predicts a little more rain, especially in December. Virtually many of the dams are in good condition. If dams, especially water supply dams, are not drained, there will be water.
So far, there is no problem with water for Thrace. And with normal rains in winter, if we use them rationally, there will be no problem to enjoy a continuous water supply.
The inadequate use of water, this valuable economic resource, is the basis of all the problems we have, mainly with the “Kamchia” dam, which supplies Varna and Burgas. It currently has a useful volume of 32 million cubic meters and with 6 million cubic meters per month required for water consumption, this means that there is water in the dam for five months.
Therefore, there is room for very serious concern, as the water supply at the dam is critically low.
A state of emergency was even requested in relation to Burgas’s water supply. If this happens, it will allow a category of state institutions to assign tasks without competition. And we are entering that vicious circle: why one, and not me, will fill the media with scandals and, at the same time, people will suffer from water shortages.
– Last winter was also warm. Does global warming invariably move up?
– Yes, definitely. The last 5 years are the warmest since meteorological observations. And most likely this year it will rank between 4th and 5th in global temperatures.
And it will be around 0.85 degrees warmer than in the pre-industrial era. That’s where the whole world is headed. It is very hot in the northern hemisphere; There, in the Arctic Ocean, in Siberia, even in part of Canada, global warming is felt better. It is currently 5-6-10 degrees warmer above the norm, not one degree, as we predict for Thrace, but 10 degrees! And this has been going on for months.
“How far will we go?” Is the EU’s notorious “green” deal, currently the number one priority in the battle against the pandemic, feasible?
– I think this agreement is not 100 percent feasible, at least as it is presented to us. It is impossible to do. 1 billion euros are planned, but right there, in the money, the dog is buried, as my students say.
Someone has to absorb the large amount of money. The Green Deal is not a bad idea, but the rate at which it will be applied does not meet the real conditions; this is my personal conviction.
And to generate electricity from hydrogen or renewable energy, metals are needed. How, for example, will this “green” deal solve the simplest problem, that of cement? And without lime and cement, nothing can be built. How will you make reinforced concrete without steel bars?
As is well known, calcium carbonate, which is burned to produce calcium oxide and therefore cement, releases enormous amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, both as a chemical reaction and as a fuel. And high temperatures in the process of combustion to make cement lead to the activation of nitrogen in the atmosphere, nitrogen oxides are released.
So I don’t know how Europe will become climate neutral by 2050.
Just one fact: where there is electricity, there are wires: copper, aluminum. You can’t fill two bags of electricity! And copper and aluminum, relatively rare metals, require complex excavation, flotation, and processing. Not to mention titanium, vanadium, steel, there is no way to replace them! When we find a way, I will believe that the “green” deal will take place.
– Geologically, the Earth has had periods of warming, followed by a sudden cooling. Does a new ice age await us, given NASA information about a large solar minimum on the Sun that we have entered?
– This solar minimum lasts more than a year, but we still see that the changes are in the ultraviolet spectrum of solar radiation.
The sun is at its minimum, but it has not fallen asleep, its intensity has not changed.
The earth continues to heat up at a pretty good rate. Above all we have the so-called La Niña: negative phase of the temperature of the ocean water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. And despite these tens of millions of kilometers of cooler water, the surface is still warmer.
So the connections between the Sun and the Earth are numerous, and never a single connection can explain climate change, which depends on many factors. This winter will be one of the warmest in the last 30 years, but we are always threatened that it will be cold. Because science, business and profit making are intertwined.
I’ve been waiting for the emergence of a mini ice age for 20 years and it’s not happening yet. At least it won’t start, there are no indicators.
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