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There is a decrease in the desire to vote in the next elections.. This shows a sociological survey by Sova Harris in the period from October 27 to November 3, 2020 among 1000 Bulgarian citizens. It was carried out using a mixed methodology: a standardized face-to-face interview conducted at the respondent’s home and a telephone interview. According to his poll, seven parties have a chance to enter the next parliament if the elections were now.
In this situation, a coalition of at least 3 political parties will be needed to form a majority.. There is an option in which not even 3 political forces are enough. If we imagine a center-left or center-right majority of 3 subjects, the current distribution of power is In both cases it will probably be necessary to seek the support of the centrist MRF.
Source: HARIS OWL
According to the study 42% of those polled are absolutely sure that they will vote in early November.. At the end of August, their number was 54% at the end of August. This significant flow shows a situational deviation of people’s attention from political issues, sociologists say.
At first glance, the data from the new sociological survey show a stabilization in public attitudes. Society is fraught with great tension, which will inevitably explode in some direction. Parity between the two main political parties in the country is preserved. There is a decline in support for GERB / UDF by almost 2%, while in BSP the output is 0.7%.
Source: HARIS OWL
At the moment, each of the two plants can pretend to be the first political force, since the difference is within the stochastic error, commented the sociological agency.
There is a decline in support from almost all political entities, the largest of which is in the emerging third political force “There is such a people”: from 10.1% in August to 6.8% today.
The values of 2 months ago are close to the results of MRF and “Democratic Bulgaria”. This shows that Both formations can count on a stable attitude of their followers towards them..
The active work of the former Ombudsman Maya Manolova pays off. His project “Stand Up.BG” increases his support by another half percent, consolidating its place above the barrier of entry to the next parliament.
The seventh part, which so far is alone above the 4% threshold, is the IMRO, which with 2.8% of all voters, recalculated to voters, are about to enter the next National Assembly. The possible participation of IMRO in the United Patriots format would strengthen this possibility..
The “Will” party of businessman Veselin Mareshki has the positions of potential partner. With the support of around 2%, which becomes more than 3% of the voters, VOLIA can be the guarantor of several possible coalitions to enter the parliament.
ABC, Vazrazhdane and Ataka also have electoral potential for the presence of the coalition.
It will be difficult to form a reform majority in the next parliament. The general trend is distribution of votes among a large number of formations. We are registering an exit from the main parties GERB and BSP. At least for now, none of them have managed to create a winning image, which would lead to an influx of new followers, the sociological agency said.
Source: HARIS OWL
The attitude towards the main institutions continues to have a negative trend. The European Union is the most reliable. Of the national institutions, the Presidency is the most trusted.
Traditionally at the bottom of the list is the National Assembly. The low position of parliament is also determined by its constitutional role, but only 9% confidence is embarrassingly small. The data shows that the time has come to choose a new staff from the most important institution in the country, the study shows.
In this study, the methodology for determining the country’s main politicians has been modified in order to bring their assessments closer to their electoral weight.
In the duel at the top between the most authoritative posts in the country, the president and the prime minister, there is now a minimal advantage of the president. The leader of the opposition, Cornelia Ninova, ranks third in public opinion.
The leaders of the new emerging formations continue Slavi Trifonov and Maya Manolova. Also weighed the positions of Defense Minister Krassimir Karakachanov and Speaker of Parliament Tsveta Karayancheva, occupying sixth and seventh place respectively.
The importance of the Vice President of Parliament Veselin Mareshki in some key votes it confirms its place in this ranking. The honorary chairman of the MRF, Ahmen Dogan, continues to weigh heavily on the political space.
The tithe is filled by the expert of the current Cabinet. Tomislav Donchev, who is seen as a mediator in relations between parties in the right-wing political space.
Source: HARIS OWL
Now the public’s reaction to the possibility of a coronavirus infection is as if the danger does not apply to us. The reaction of society to the first wave of the Kovid-19 epidemic was fear of something unknown and unknown to what extent it was dangerous. In the spring, the measures were timely and we were able to limit the spread of the virus in its infancy. Bulgaria was one of the countries least affected by the epidemic.
On the one hand, we are more prepared. More than half of adult citizens say that they strictly observe generally accepted measures: discipline, distance and disinfection.. Another 37% of people comply with the measures.
About 11% remain who do not follow the recipes or cannot judge their behavior.
That in fact every tenth goes against the measure, it’s shameful. At the moment, just over a third are in favor of stricter measures. The other two thirds still believe that we can drive as before. The behavior of the government is in the same tone. Obviously Pre-election restrictions are postponed because they are considered unpopular..
And that’s it it is not about the curfew or the blockade of cities. The presence of the public at football matches was prohibited throughout Europe, but not in our country.. The same applies to visits to sporting events, entertainment venues and cultural events.
The situation shows that without the necessary preventive measures, we provide the basis for the diffuse spread of infection, where the health system cannot survive.
If we fail in the medical field, we will fail financially, sociologists predict.
Almost half of adult Bulgarians fear a decrease in income or loss of their jobs. Those who claim that their savings are melting are more than half. For 40%, the situation can get worse to the point of not being able to survive.
For now The actions of the government in relation to the crisis are approved by the majority of the citizens..
People’s negativity is directed at the health care system, according to Sova Harris. About 1/3 of the people believe that Boyko Borissov’s third cabinet will organize a more adequate response to the second wave of the epidemic. Around them, they believe that an interim government would do better.
We have reason to believe that The role of the different political actors in the management of the Kovid-19 crisis will have a decisive impact on the next parliamentary elections..
Source: HARIS OWL
The wave of protests that swept through the country’s main cities sparked a serious public outcry. Supporters of the protest, either in full or with some reservations, gravitate around 70% of the voters. What the protesters did was to discredit the ruling party and create the conditions for new political projects to emerge. In this way, the protest exhausted its mission, according to Owl Harris.
The radicalization of the civil disobedience protest is not approved by 65% of the country’s adult population. Obviously, development must be oriented towards established democratic forms with an emphasis on the next elections.
The time horizon for holding early or periodic elections has stabilized. The results of the study show that 44% are for regular elections, 39% – for early elections. 31% of its people don’t care who will hold the next parliamentary elections.
24% believe that the current government will hold the next parliamentary elections in a more honest and democratic way, and 28%, a provisional government appointed by the president. The prevailing view is that the next elections should be held regularly in March 2021.
The question of the adoption of a new Constitution is not in the focus of public opinion. It is believed that the best option is to modify the current Constitution.
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