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Turkey’s current plan for Nagorno-Karabakh includes peace in exchange for territories in favor of Azerbaijan. However, the fighting has not stopped despite the announced ceasefire, as Armenia strongly disagrees: Yerevan suggests that this concession could lead to new territorial claims. President Nicole Pashinyan remembers the “Munich Agreement” when Hitler, after peacefully receiving part of Czechoslovakia, occupied the entire country.
Moscow does not allow Ankara as part of the talks because there is no reason to do so. Turkey has not yet participated directly in the talks, but has provided arms and ammunition to the Azerbaijani army, transferred thousands of jihadists from Syria to the hostilities zone, and Turkish operators are believed to control the attacks in their Bayraktar drones.
In protracted hostilities, Azerbaijan could exhaust Armenia and win the undeclared war. However, this will be, in a sense, a personal victory for Turkish President Erdogan, who has turned Azerbaijan into an instrument of the Islamist policy of conquering Ankara. Then Erdogan will certainly materialize Turkey’s political and economic presence in the region, and not just in the Caucasus.
However, the most serious danger is Erdogan’s claim to the Caspian region. The maritime borders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan are now located there, and each country has a naval force. Russia has established the Caspian flotilla there, consisting of several brigades and ship divisions, including more than 25 ships, some of which took part in the fighting in Syria.
The other four countries have ships from the Soviet era, they will have to build ships on the spot or buy them from Russia.
Russia has a decisive advantage in the Caspian region over its neighbors, because only she can fill the lineup with new ships on the Volga-Don canal from the Black Sea and the Zelenodolsk “Gorky” plant on the Volga.
Just a few days ago, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Caspian flotilla had started exercises in the central Caspian Sea, involving the crews of missile ships, including Tatarstan and Dagestan, as well as small ships from missiles Uglich and “Great Ustyug”. However, Erdogan could shift the balance of power by giving the United States access to the Caspian Sea and its airspace.
Well-known Israeli analyst Yakov Kedmi has released an interesting version: Turkey can, under the guise of Azerbaijan’s military support, build several military bases in the Caspian Sea and bring NATO troops there. US and British military aircraft will be able to conduct strategic operations over the sea.
Kedmi said: “If someone in the Russian Federation allows it, they can be shot without trial!” In fact, NATO’s entry into the region could seriously complicate Russia’s situation there: it will be necessary to increase the number of ships in the Flotilla, deploy additional air and anti-missile defense forces, and attract additional troops to coastal defense.
Can Turkish President Erdogan do all this? It is beyond all doubt! It’s tempting to look back at a flashback: in June 1974, France was preparing for a presidential election, and then Le Monde accurately predicted that the winner would be Valerie Giscard d’Estaing, because she was “a political prostitute with more than 40 counts. “. ”. In that sense, Erdogan should not be underestimated.
He is optimistic for Russia that Iran and Kazakhstan will not celebrate their neighborhood with the United States and NATO. Turkmenistan is likely to remain neutral. Still, the problem Russia faces will be real and serious.
In fact, Putin’s big problem today is avoiding the preconditions for closer Ankara-Baku rapprochement. It is unclear how this will be achieved, because if Nagorno-Karabakh falls, it will only exacerbate Erdogan’s hegemonic ambitions to restore the former glory of the Turkish Empire. Little is known about Erdogan’s program for the rise of the Turkish nation, which by 2099 should rank fourth in the world after the United States, China and Russia.
