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“Schools are one of the main drivers of the pandemic. And not just for Bulgaria, this is what Karl Latherbach said about Germany. There are studies from Korea, India, the US. Children are largely asymptomatic. If they find out that a child is infected, it is because he has had symptoms. This means that it has been a long time. During this time, there are other asymptomatic people around him, whose parents are not in quarantine either. They go to the offices, “he said in the air of “Hello, Bulgaria” the mathematician and professor of the Department of Informatics of NBU Lachezar Tomov.
Professor Vitanov with a forecast of when the greatest pressure will be on COVID-19
He is of the opinion that if there are many infected people who have gotten sick and have antibodies, they should form a protective axis and start to decline. However, such a thing was noticed only when schools were closed.
“If people were more strict and quarantined children stayed home, just like their parents, we would have seen this delay sooner. If we closed all schools and shopping centers in 2-3 weeks, we will have a very marked drop in the number of people infected, “Tomov said.
Expert: We have not yet reached the maximum values of the infection
He has calculated how many Bulgarians are infected and, according to him, the lower limit according to data from a week ago is 220 thousand. There were probably around 70,000 more. According to him, an average of 5,000 people are infected per day. Tomov believes that the country should be closed and, when the cases decrease, it should be reopened, but in stages, as is done in New York.
“We would be less infected if we had a different approach. The more infected there are, the faster the deaths will increase. The ratio is 3: 1, out of every three deaths, one has a coronavirus,” explained Tomov.
Prof. Vitanov: 1 in 100 people in Bulgaria currently has COVID-19
Over the next two weeks, he predicted more than 3,000 deaths. The mathematician believes that if the measures were stricter from the summer, about 5,000 lives could be saved.
“In June, we had reached very low levels of infection. I think we were in a hurry. Allowing the balls was also a big mistake. That’s where our epidemic started then. If we had stayed a little longer, we could have dropped to 0 and stayed that way. for 2-3 months. During this time, we could strengthen the quarantine of those who come from abroad and the tests of tourists. Now we would have a completely different trajectory, “explained Tomov.
According to him, the government thought positively about the pandemic and had to rule according to the worst case scenario. The mathematician believes that the country is behind schedule with the closure measures.
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