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The Rego Institute conducted its first sociological survey of political and electoral attitudes in October 2020. Trust in political parties and the main state institutions was measured.
If the parliamentary elections were held today, 27.1% of Bulgarian citizens would vote for the GERB, 26.3% for the BSP, 18.6% for “There are such people”, 8.3% for the MRF and for the Democratic Union of Bulgaria. “- 7.6% and for Stand up. BG” – 3.9%.
Based on the cited results, which show the vote of those who have decided for which political party or coalition they will vote, the sure participation of the following five political entities in the next parliament: GERB, BSP, “There is such a people”, MRF and Association of Democratic Bulgaria.
The very high proportion of those who have not decided which party or coalition of parties will vote is impressive (some of them may not exercise their right to vote): 20.3%. This high percentage suggests that there may be significant changes in expected positions. The large proportion of refusals to interview must also be taken into account, including fear of free expression of political attitudes among respondents.
The two main intrigues derived from the data correspond to the first and fourth places. GERB and BSP have practically equal positions and sociological parity. The situation is similar between the MRF and democratic Bulgaria, which compete for fourth place. “There are people like that” from Slavi Trifonov receives great sympathy, but it is still new and unknown as a political project, associated only with its leader and his media career. In this sense, the party lacks political legitimacy.
The still unfinished project of Maya Manolova gravitates around 4%, but it is far from any stable forecast for a safe entrance to the next parliament. The United Patriots and Will would have a hard time approaching the electoral barrier. The attack and Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s “Republicans for Bulgaria” remain below 1%. Henceforth, there are no political entities that can be defined as vital and attract significant public attention.
MAIN INSTITUTIONS
The data shows a clear low level of trust of Bulgarian citizens in most of the institutions. None of them managed to win more than half the trust of the voters. Only 8.1%, 9.7%, 9.8%, 15% and 31.1% of the respondents have full and great confidence in the court, the prosecution, the parliament, the government and the President.
The data presented comes from a national survey conducted among 2,000 adult Bulgarian citizens in the period from October 21, 2020 to October 27, 2020. The selection of respondents is made by quotas based on demographic characteristics, type settlement, sex and age. The primary information recording method is a direct standardized interview with the help of tablets and paper questionnaires.
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