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There will be no measures such as the blockade of cities and towns due to the increase in the incidence of COVID-19. From now on, the measures must be local and specific. This was announced to bTV by Associate Professor Angel Kunchev from the National Operations Headquarters.
“Today I am preparing an instruction, not for the directors of RHI, but for the regional governors, in their capacity as presidents of the local staff. From now on the measures must be first local and then focused – we intervene where there is a problem, because at this moment the morbidity between the different regions is enormous, many times.
The most affected are Blagoevgrad, Smolyan, the least: Lovech, Vratsa, Veliko Tarnovo and Haskovo, and the differences between them are enormous. When it was necessary, there was an explosion, let’s say in a social home or in a company, or in some family home, large, family; we intervene there, if necessary we quarantine there, but this is decided locally by the local headquarters. Of course, if we need help, we will give it where it is needed, ”explained the health inspector in detail.
For him, the most difficult objects are nursing homes.
Obviously that we will live with this pandemic, probably one more year“Until the vaccine comes, it will be shown to be effective, most people are immunized and stop the spread,” added Associate Professor Kunchev.
There is a very good table from the European Center for Disease Control and it gives the trends: compare last week with last week and things are going wrong in Europe, the increase is everywhere. There are two centers at the time of greatest growth, these are on the one hand in the West – Spain, France, Belgium, to some extent Great Britain and Ireland and in the East – Ukraine, Czech Republic – with a very high morbidity in recent days . many times larger than ours, Slovakia and Poland, Kunchev added.
“The rest of the countries are somewhere in the middle, and in Bulgaria the growth is quite strong, the difference between the two weeks is more than 95%. Of all Europe, only two countries have a slight decrease: Denmark and Estonia, with a minimum of 2-3%, “he said. Associate Prof. Kunchev.
According to him, we are obviously at the beginning of the expected autumn-winter wave of increasing morbidity: “We continue with the objective of keeping the infection under control so that it does not overload the health system. It is overloaded, the objective is not to remain human.” that he does not get the necessary medical care. “There is enough of everything in Bulgaria, but the big problem in Bulgarian medicine is the staff: both doctors and nurses are in short supply in many places,” added the chief state health inspector.
In large university hospitals, this lack is less felt, but even there there are problems. However, with this scheme, which we have made, at three levels, of the gradual inclusion of new hospitals, new wards, we have at our disposal 8000 beds, of which 1200 are occupied, but precisely those that work more intensively, with more Experienced, infectious, specialized pulmonary.
From now on we can add beds, but they will be of other types of compartments, which we will have to support with staff, which we do. At this stage, even with two to three times more morbidity, the system will cope and take care of the sick. However, if this lasts too long and the numbers are, let’s say, in Montenegro, where the incidence is 11 times higher than ours, not the percentage, then things will get more complicated, ”he added.
Regarding the distribution of COVID-19 in schools, Associate Professor Kunchev said that the protocol, which was created by experts from the Ministry of Education and Science and the Ministry of Health, is very comprehensive and very accurate. It is 30 pages long and specifically describes in which situation to act. It has all the principals, all the schools, based on which they make their own plans. But life is very colorful, we cannot describe absolutely every situation.
We have a perfect mathematical model for influenza, we have used it for 30 years, in which we know every week for each area – reaching 260, for example, for every 10,000 morbidity – we declare a pre-epidemic situation, in 300 – we declare an epidemic. We have been working with this virus for 8 months. We have no values to trust, nor will it be correct. There can be no automatism, there is an assessment of the current situation and the adoption of appropriate measures, “explained Associate Professor Kunchev.
The state’s chief health inspector said the contacts were being monitored and not all should be quarantined or screened.
“PCR tests the day after contact contain almost no information. The virus must grow, multiply, be in the nasopharynx for at least 4-5 days for us to detect and test it. These delays sometimes irritate people and say : Nobody says anything, nobody reacts, we react, we simply leave people in place to work according to the rules so that they can be as effective as possible, it is better to take the exam after the 4th to the 5th day.
