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Never since the collapse of the Soviet Union has Russia been more isolated than it is today. By the end of 2020, Moscow is in conflict with most of its European neighbors, with the exception of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Distrust in Russia certainly has its roots in history, but to a greater extent it is a reaction to Moscow’s foreign policy. Future US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken describes her as “aggressive”, “fickle” and “adventurous” and insists that the Kremlin be held accountable for its “dangerous actions”: sending Russian troops to Ukraine and supporting the Assad regime in Syria. .
Biden’s team has experience with Putin
Moscow has so far reacted calmly to such signals. But that will change if Washington continues to tighten the tie, which is highly likely. The United States, for example, has yet to impose sanctions for the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Navalny. Additionally, Washington is expected to exert additional pressure to prevent completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Most of the members of the new US administration are not beginners: They worked in the White House during the Obama era. So both they and future President Joe Biden have experience with Vladimir Putin. Washington refuses to divide the world into spheres of influence, as it did during the Cold War. Which means, for example, that if the majority of the population of Belarus wants to get rid of their dictator, Moscow should not intervene. The same applies to Georgia’s eventual membership in NATO. The United States will limit Russian influence whenever possible. And Moscow cannot do much about it.
Russia’s troubles deepen
Russia has been weakened for years. The last few years have simply been wasted by the Kremlin. The modernization of the economy that Putin had promised has gone nowhere. The profits of Russian banks and other companies are melting. The country continues to live off the export of raw materials. Qualified personnel are fleeing the country. Real wages have been falling for years, capital flight is in the billions. At the same time, investments by foreign companies in the country are declining. For ordinary Russians, military intervention in Ukraine, Syria or Libya is a small consolation: With the patriotic propaganda of the state-controlled media, the average Russian cannot buy anything in the store.
However, the Kremlin will change its behavior only if necessary. Washington and Europe are preparing for years of confrontation. Certainly, there are issues on which the West can cooperate with Moscow: in the fight against international terrorism, the restoration of the nuclear deal with Iran, or climate issues. But the main attitude, to see Russia as an adversary, remains.
China is Moscow’s only hope
What will Russia do? It should bet even more on China, if only for economic reasons. The roles are clearly divided: on the one hand, the economic giant China, on the other, the ailing junior partner Russia.
Even the military power of Moscow does not change things in foreign policy. NATO is much stronger today. Especially now that Biden and the Europeans want to re-link their foreign policy more closely.
Moscow is isolated, although it is trying to beautify things, as we saw at Putin’s annual press conference. The Russian president seems to have lost touch with reality a long time ago.
In the modern world, power is primarily a function of economic power. But this is where Russia shows its weakness. Of course: the West is also suffering from the pandemic. But once it’s over, a steep climb is expected. Meanwhile, the United States can print as many dollars and euros as it wants, but the rest of the world’s confidence in its economic power remains intact.
And Biden is not infallible
It is true that as a senator and vice president, Joe Biden was involved in many wrong decisions, such as the US intervention in Libya and Iraq. In his Democratic Party, he has always been one of the “hawks” of foreign policy. But in a few weeks, he will be sworn in as president and have a chance to learn from his past mistakes.
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