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Bill Gates photo: Reuters
The model allows up to 10 deaths per day and zero victims after May 28.
The peak of the need for medical resources due to the coronavirus epidemic in Bulgaria will be on April 24, according to a forecast model developed by the influential University of Washington Institute for Health Assessment and Indicators (IHME). According to the Washington Post, the White House uses the same model.
IHME has developed scenarios for the development of the pandemic in more than 40 countries. According to forecasts for Bulgaria between April 19 and 30, you can expect 9 or 10 deaths per day in the country, after which they will begin to decrease and after May 28 there will be no deaths. (See the table).
The Institute assumes that, in the worst case, deaths could reach 57 per day. By August 4, the IHME model predicts that 303 people have died in our country.
Estimates for Bulgaria indicate that the bed capacity is many times greater than necessary and that 74 respirators will be required.
The IHME data, which is continuously updated, is valid with a “complete social distance until May 2020” imposed.
IHME was created in 2007 and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Their conclusions are used by governments when making decisions.
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