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According to the NSI, 15,964 people died in November, double the number in 2019.
There are 2,681 COVID victims. There is no data on what is due to the remaining 5,168 cases of the increase.
Mortality in Bulgaria has risen to unprecedented levels in November, according to INE data. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic through mid-October, the average weekly mortality in recent years remained at around 2,000.
However, by week 43 of 2020, the death toll increased by 461 people, or 23% compared to the same week in 2019. Seven days later, there are now 668 more deaths, in week 45 the deaths increased by 1037, at 46 with 1857, by 47, the statistics already show 2370 more deaths than usual. In the last week of November (48) the jump was 2,585 drastic cases. It is
mortality of
35 per 1000 people
At first glance, this grim statistic follows the peak of the second wave of the pandemic in our country and the grim warning that “you are going to die hard” comes true. In the last two weeks, Bulgaria ranks second in the world in the number of deaths from COVID-19 per 1 million inhabitants, about 20 per day.
However, when comparing the drastically higher number of deaths with the data of the victims of the virus in the same weeks, we get huge differences. For week 43, for example, the number of deaths reported from COVID is 133. However, the total number of deaths is 461 more compared to the same seven-day period in 2019, or the difference is 328 deaths. This gives a further 15% increase in weekly mortality compared to last year for unknown reasons. (See table).
The bills get even more mysterious during the last week of November. 966 people died of COVID, and the reported increase compared to the same week last year. that’s 2585 deaths. Therefore, the difference between the two statistics, the COVID information portal and the NSI, is 1619 people, or a further increase of 80% compared to 2019 for an unknown reason.
The explanation for this phenomenon may lie in an unidentified coronavirus in some of the deceased, but the percentage is surprisingly high due only to such omissions.
The difficult access to hospitals for the chronically ill, the delay in ambulances in emergencies due to their busy schedule, the postponement of planned operations and the attitude of people in a pandemic situation
looking for a doctor
only in the extreme
case
as well as other difficulties in our health system also affect, experts say. But such difficulties in the conditions of the pandemic have been experiencing our health for months and again there is no logical explanation for the sharp increase in deaths in November.
The large number of sick doctors who cannot treat their patients is likely contributing to the bleak picture.
Many people also do not have access to their personal doctor: some of the doctors are in quarantine, others are afraid to contact potentially infected people, and the “exam” by phone is not always effective. Retirement-age jeeps have decided to withdraw from their practices in conditions of greater risk to their health and now their patients are looking for a new GP, which is a difficult task.
An explanation for the sharp increase in mortality can be found in the hypothesis of a much higher number of infected than officially registered. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Bulgaria has been the EU country with the fewest tests per capita.
Due to the lack of massive antibody testing, we do not have approximate data on what percentage of the population is currently driving or has already encountered COVID-19. For weeks, the number of patients quarantined as contact persons was significantly less than the number of people with positive PCR tests due to the inability of health inspections to locate and notify them. In other words, they went to work, to stores and to transport, they transmitted the infection. With about 40% positive tests in weeks, a similar or even higher percentage of the population may have found the coronavirus this fall.
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