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Support for the protests is growing. However, they did not like the locks. The protest leaders are gaining recognition rather slowly. Confidence in the government remains low. The forces of the two main formations remain the same. The idea of a new constitution is confusing, but many of the concrete proposals discussed automatically like it. There is little dynamism compared to the poll conducted amid the protests a month ago.
These are part of the findings of the national survey conducted from September 3 to 11 among 807 Bulgarian adults. It is part of Gallup International’s regular political and economic index, an independent, face-to-face monthly survey conducted for thirty years.
The agency’s survey findings in the previous month are still valid: in the crisis, the two main parties are eroding and having equal forces, and the public has shifted to no-vote (29.4% of all voters eligible) or to the declarative answer “I do not support anyone” (a total of 6.8%) or to new options such as Slavi Trifonov (8.3% of those who have the right to vote). However, much of “I don’t support anyone” on Election Day is likely to turn into a refusal to vote.
The MRF was traditionally mobilized in the months leading up to the elections (7.6%), and the OP (2.7%) partially overcame the impact of the peak of protests a month and a half ago and is still on the verge of entering the next National Assembly. DB (5.2%) and the Maya Manolova formation (2.2%) remain at the high levels reached at their peak a month ago, but have not continued “upward” so far.
The income of Manolova’s network will depend on work until the elections, while the DB appears to be a reliable participant in the National Assembly. Thus, the prospects of being in the next National Assembly once again have 7 formations, and five of them at this point seem certain. Of course, the data cannot be a prediction of the outcome of an election and is presented among all eligible voters, not just voters (as they would be presented in an actual election campaign).
The new circumstance is that the BSP (13.5% of those eligible to vote) seems to be a little more mobilized than the GERB (13.2%) – in sociological terms the two numbers mean practically the same, but a check between the more – those who firmly decided to vote show less confidence in GERB. This is probably because the field of study captures the effects of the great protest of September 2, which hurts the GERB. It probably has some prestige effect. The survey cannot capture the effects of the BSP’s internal party election. There is no way to capture the latest effects of yesterday’s action, related to Maya Manolova, in the National Assembly.
Will (1.8%) is close to the main pack. With significant results, although less than 1%, there are formations such as “Movement 21”, “Attack”, “Renaissance” and others. The announcement of the entry of some small formations in Manolova can be an important factor for “Stand Up.BG”. However, it will be some time before public opinion begins to connect Maya Manolova, for example, with Tatiana Doncheva and others. A tenth of a percentage uses projects like Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s, but there may be so-called “Hidden Vote”.
In general, the data indicates static rather than a continuous erosion of the image of power. The latter is evident in the fact that more than two-thirds support the protests. 59% of Bulgarian adults share the specific demand for resignation from the government and quick elections. The creation of a second cabinet in this term confuses people a lot: 36% support and 43% do not support.
The majority of 57% do not support the blockades, while 34% support them.
Counter-protests find support among 28% of Bulgarian adults and 53% do not support them.
There is no significant change in trust in institutions compared to the previous month’s survey. The fall in government and parliament has not continued, although they remain at the low levels of confidence reached last month: 21% and 15% respectively this month.
The presidential institution has somewhat recovered its confidence levels from previous periods, after appearing threatened a month ago, and now has 52% confidence. So is personal trust in Rumen Radev, with whom he remains the most approved political figure in our country.
Boyko Borissov maintains less than 20% confidence and is at the traditional levels of Cornelia Ninova and the two already have the same approval among society. Slavi Trifonov is 30% confident. The people of the “Poison Trio” still have relatively low recognition, although it is growing. The apparently low levels of personal confidence of the three, in the range between 11 and 16%, are due to low recognition.
The various constitutional change ideas launched so far are supported, sometimes automatically. It is difficult to expect a general awareness among the population; it’s more about instincts. The low level of trust in the ruling class is also evidenced by the fact that all ideas related to the reduction of terms are especially approved.
There is a lack of awareness about legal issues, for example. The very request for a new constitution also causes confusion: here the answers are already influenced by the specific situation and are not based on principles. However, the idea of a Grand National Assembly seems to find a bit more instinctive approval than disapproval (although the proportion of those who cannot judge is the most sensitive). The abolition of the institute of the Supreme National Assembly, for example, is more clearly disapproved of. The latter means that the SJC is routinely perceived as important. It is a completely different question to what extent respondents are aware of the specific dimensions of the issue.
Restricting same-sex marriage turns out to be one of the most widely shared ideas, along with so-called educational qualifications, increased presidential powers, military service, etc.
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