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FACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
Tonight, the Ukrainian army fired at positions in the Lugansk region of pro-Russian separatists and opened retaliatory fire, Interfax reported. The agency referred to the military department of the unrecognized Luhansk People’s Republic. This is the first bombing since the introduction of additional ceasefire control measures in Donbass last July. The incident appears to confirm fears expressed this week that the armed conflict in southeastern Ukraine is about to erupt again.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased its military presence on the border with Ukraine, and the Kiev authorities have called on NATO to increase combat readiness for forces in Ukraine’s neighboring countries.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin assured his Ukrainian counterpart Andrei Taran that the US will not leave Ukraine alone with the enemy and will not allow Russia’s aggressive intentions to be realized. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that if US troops showed up in Ukraine, Russia would be forced to take additional measures to protect itself.
What is really happening in Donbass? Why are the conditions for the resumption of fighting being created right now? What are the risks of fueling conflict between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists?
The answers to these questions were sought by the program “Saturday 150” of the political commentator of the radio “Kommersant” Maxim Yusin.
The last time we talked about Donbass was after the Normandy Quartet meeting in Paris in December 2019. He then said that the conflict in southeastern Ukraine was freezing. A year and a few months later, alarming voices were heard in Moscow warning of the danger of a new war. Why right now and who benefits from the escalation of the conflict?
What we talked about in December 2019 was completely justified, because we observed a conflict freeze for 15 months. There were practically no fatal bombings during this period and many lives were saved. However, the current situation is very tense, but not so much because of Russian-Ukrainian relations as because of the international context.
With the coming to power of the administration of US President Joe Biden, some politicians in Kiev felt that now was the time to try to pressure Russia to take decisive action in the Donbass and thus kill several rabbits with one bullet. I don’t think the Ukrainians will launch a full-scale offensive against Donetsk and Lugansk. However, they can launch a local offensive under some plausible pretext, such as responding to bombardments by separatists, for example. They realize that Russia will fall into this trap, it will provide immediate assistance to the two republics, which will be presented to the West as a direct military aggression against a sovereign state. From Kiev’s point of view, various tasks would be solved in this way. Kiev is taking a hard line for Russia in the Biden administration. Victoria Newland, who is currently the third person in the State Department, will receive a strong argument for the introduction of new severe sanctions against Russia. This is also putting great pressure on Germany in relation to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Americans, Ukrainians and Poles alike are very concerned that construction will continue despite everything. However, if Russia is accused of direct aggression against Ukraine, the continuation of the project will be much more difficult.
Another problem is being solved. No one will talk about the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which are unfavorable for Kiev. Kiev does not even hide that it does not want to recover Donbass under the conditions set out in the Minsk agreements. However, it is inconvenient to simply announce your withdrawal from the agreements. France and Germany will not show understanding. However, these agreements have been approved by the UN Security Council and a Russian aggression has erased all international agreements. A new situation is emerging, and consequently no one will accuse Ukraine of not complying with the Minsk agreements.
It follows from what you say that Russia has no interest in escalating the conflict in Donbass.
If anyone is currently interested in aggravating the situation, it is Ukraine, not Russia. Put yourself in Putin’s shoes. It has quite a few problems in its relations with the West. Still, the Americans consistently impose sanctions on occasions and without occasions. Is it suicide to give them such an important reason for the penalties? Gazprom will complete Nord Stream 2 by the fall. Does Putin want to give his opponents an argument against completing the pipeline?
And how would you explain the accumulation of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine?
The troop gathering aims to show the “hotheads” in Kiev that if they carry out this provocation, launch an offensive and stop any local victory, Russia will not limit itself to half measures. If Ukraine hits hard in Donetsk and Lugansk, where 600,000 Russian citizens already live, it will have serious consequences. The Ukrainian army understood this message very well. Because the Ukrainian military are much more suitable people than many politicians, officials of the presidential administration and deputies of the ruling Servant of the People party. My prediction is that although there appears to be a military escalation at the moment, this will stop at the last minute. Even if hardliners in Washington pressure Ukrainians to take decisive action, they will somehow manage to escape. Moscow will not try to blow up the situation and launch an offensive. We have absolutely no need for that.
During the week, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in Donbass with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Why was Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky not invited to the talks?
There are two reasons. One is that Putin does not want to communicate with Zelensky. Moscow does not believe that Zelensky is capable of fulfilling his commitments. Kiev did not comply with anything that was agreed in December 2019 in Paris. Demonstratively harsh measures have been taken against Russia in recent months … Look at the information about these negotiations on the Kremlin website, on the Federal Chancellor’s website or on the Elysee Palace website. There are seven or eight topics that have been discussed. They didn’t just talk about Ukraine. First of all, they talked about the pandemic, vaccination, how to spread the Sputnik V vaccine in the European Union. They also discussed the problems in Iran, Syria and Libya. Neither Marshal Haftar nor Prime Minister Saraj participated in the debate in Libya. There was another topic – Belarus, which, imagine, was discussed not only without Lukashenko, but also without Tikhanovskaya. Imagine the catastrophe. Thus, one or another regional crisis and problems in specific countries can still be discussed without the participation of representatives of these countries.
Relations between Russia and Ukraine, two neighboring and very close countries, have hit a kind of bottom. At least I don’t see when and under what circumstances they could go back to normal. Don’t you think that the responsibility for this lies not only with the West, led by the United States and Ukraine, but also with Russia itself?
Russia and Ukraine made many serious mistakes. The blame is mutual. Since the beginning of Ukraine’s independence, Russia’s policy towards Ukraine has been very clumsy. Russian political scientists and political engineers went to Ukraine and worked on all elections. They worked great. They rejected the political elite of Kiev, lost all possible elections, allowed the first Maidan. Then we managed to deal with the consequences of the first Maidan, but nevertheless, the people who did not understand the situation there took care of Ukraine. In the end, we have allowed Russian-Ukrainian relations to reach a level such that it is no longer possible to restore them while we are alive, and probably while our children are alive.
Ukraine
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