[ad_1]
6, 7 or 8 parties can enter parliament, the Exacta Research Group commented on the basis of its national survey conducted in the period 23-29 March 2021 among 1,005 adult Bulgarians in 123 nests in 92 settlements. The study is independent of external financing and was carried out with its own funds.
According to the data, GERB-UDF would receive 28.5 percent among those who firmly decided to vote as of March 29, “BSP for Bulgaria” – 20 percent, “There are such people” – 13 percent, MRF – 12 , 4 percent. “Democratic Bulgaria” – 6.7 percent, VMRO – 4.3 percent, “Get up! Get out!” / IMV / – 4.3 percent.
The final phase of the campaign will be decisive for the performance of IMRO and IMV, it is possible that another party will attack the 4% barrier at the end of the campaign, analysts say. They point out that the number of formations that will be represented in the Bulgarian parliament largely depends on voter turnout, but mainly on the firmness of voters from the smaller formations.
The Volia Party-NFSB is a newly formed coalition, albeit with recognized leaders. As part of the campaign, we are seeing an increase in support for this training. If that trend continues until voting day, the coalition has a chance of a good performance, “Exacto” commented.
According to them, the “Republicans for Bulgaria” may also surprise, as they are increasing their recognition and support through an intense campaign. Accurate sociological measurement of your constituency is difficult due to regional specificities and the hidden vote hypothesis, sociologists say.
“Vazrazhdane”, ABV, KOD and “Ataka” received participation in the study in the order of approximately and a little more than one percent.
Analysts point out that it is correct to calculate the mandates once it is clear how many parties are in the composition of the Bulgarian parliament.
The “Exacta” data from the beginning of March to the present shows that the intensive distribution of COVID-19 in our country is a factor that can reduce electoral activity among people concerned about their health. This leads to the assumption that fewer than 3 million voters will vote, most likely between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000 people.
Obviously, in these elections we will register some correlation between attitudes of fear caused by COVID-19, attitudes of protest maintained since the summer of 2020, and attitudes of support for the status quo, analysts commented, adding that COVID-19 it is a factor in choice, a career that will passively leave many people with diverse political sympathies and active citizenship.
The current poll registers a proportion of those who are determined to vote, which is close to 45 percent. For voting day, Exacta expects some increase in support for GERB and ITN and retention of the electoral shares of BSP and DB.
Exacta Research Group conducts its national surveys on the territory of Bulgaria, so our data does not include voting outside the country, the agency said.
Research business card:
Results of a national survey by Exacta Research Group, conducted in the period from March 23 to 29, 2021.
1005 adult Bulgarians were studied in 123 nests in 92 settlements. The registration methodology is a direct semi-standardized “face-to-face” interview. The study is independent of external funding and was conducted with funds from Exacta Research Group. The maximum error for 50% actions is +/- 3%. As required by the Electoral Code, any media that uses data from this survey must report the information in this box.
Bulgaria
[ad_2]
