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ACTS Post opinions with a wide range of perspectives to encourage constructive discussion.
Erdogan is fighting on many fronts. It knows no restrictions. However, their actions are predictable. His political style still shows that he grew up in one of the most troubled districts of Istanbul.
Gone are the days when “soft power” Turkey wanted to be seen as a model for the Islamic world. Turkey today acts with a firm hand and wants to be recognized as a regional power. It has sent troops, mercenaries and weapons to Syria and Iraq, as well as to Libya and Azerbaijan. And its naval forces, once a completely neglected army, are now the largest in the eastern Mediterranean, proving their power there.
Turkey considers everything that concerns NATO and the EU to be successful. In Syria, the Turkish army stopped the Syrian-Russian offensive in Idlib province, thus preventing a new wave of refugees. In Libya, by contrast, he reversed the course of the war and forced the anti-Turkish coalition to withdraw there. This has become a prerequisite for Turkey, through aggressive policy throughout the eastern Mediterranean, to challenge existing international agreements on the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones in the region, as well as to assert its right to participate in the exploitation of natural resources.
Now, with its military and political support for Azerbaijan, Turkey is opening a third front against Russia, after Syria and Libya. In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Russians are on the side of Armenia. The long-standing male friendship between Presidents Erdogan and Putin has cooled off today. Today, the Turkish president accuses Russia of ignoring Turkish interests.
The Turkish army and Erdogan’s style
There are three factors that encouraged Turkey to join the conflict in the Caucasus. First, in recent years, the Turkish army has gained a lot of experience with its drones and mercenaries in Syria. Furthermore, Turkey is seriously arming itself despite its current economic problems: a quarter of the country’s budget goes directly or indirectly to the military. And the concept of the Blue Homeland developed by the army has become the basis for Turkey’s aggressive behavior in the Mediterranean. It is true that after the failed coup attempt in 2016, the military is no longer a strong political factor, but it is stronger than ever and its military successes have helped it regain some of the lost trust among the people.
The second factor is the gap Turkey faces in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Levant and the Caucasus, caused by the lack of interest from the United States. The EU cannot fill this void because it is not united and, unlike Turkey, it is not willing to bet on a military showdown.
Third: Erdogan has no qualms. In his political career, he has often sought open conflict to achieve his goals. In his political style, it is still clear that he was a man who grew up in one of Istanbul’s most troubled districts. Erdogan is taking risks that he thinks he can calculate. And it is often successful. He owes his rise to his political instinct to see opportunities and seize them. Although he supports the dictator Aliyev, in the conflict in the Caucasus, Erdogan has identified himself as a leader of the Muslim and Turkish peoples.
Erdogan rules autocratically, but he is predictable. When under pressure, he reacts with even more pressure to show himself as a strong leader who shows no weakness. Respond positively to political and material incentives if there is any benefit from this. Or completely ignoring, if there are none.
With his aggressive policy in the eastern Mediterranean, Erdogan has achieved his goal: to carve out a niche for negotiations on the region’s exclusive economic zones. Turkey does not accept the maximalist and controversial claims of Greece on this issue from the point of view of international maritime law. Because now small islands deprive Turkey, the country with the longest Mediterranean coast, of access to the region’s natural resources.
Meanwhile, an understanding between Ankara and Athens on this issue now seems possible, thanks to the mediation efforts of the German government and NATO. However, this is far from the end of the conflict. Because Turkey does not recognize Cyprus, it claims the exclusive economic zone of the EU member state and is not ready to negotiate with it.
How Erdogan wants to win over tired voters
Erdogan’s rhetoric and Turkish military successes are very well received in Turkey. They reinforce the position of the Turkish president, who is in a position of self-defense in domestic politics. And if elections are held now, his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partners, the MHP National Action Party, will lose their absolute majority. Erdogan has been battling Turkish voter fatigue over the rule of a man who has guided Turkey’s destiny for nearly two decades. Two thirds of young Turks intend to leave the country. They are less religious than the older cohorts and speak out against the restriction of their freedoms. Cracks are also visible among the conservative AKP electorate. However, current military rhetoric and sentiments are a weld that can fill them.
Turkey
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