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“The new political situation in the country has caused a drop in support in the two main parties – the major parties in the GERB – between July and August, and in September and October there is no particular new dynamic. It seems that the dynamics in the demand for early elections also stopped, did not continue to grow, although it remained high. The coronavirus caused a sharp rise in economic anxiety even before the protests, but then it stopped growing and settled to its new, more alarming levels.
Time will tell if public anxiety about the economy will continue to grow. It will soon become clear whether the overall “loop” is a “plateau” before calming down or a “step” into even more negative periods. Developments with the coronavirus are difficult to predict. All of this will affect trust in institutions: it is influenced by party preferences and economic factors.
This is a summary of the sociological situation in our country in recent months. The data comes from Gallup International Balkan’s regular monthly independent polls, including the latest face-to-face poll between October 1-9.
Today the support for the main formations has remained lower than before and is practically the same for BSP and GERB. Thus, the advance that GERB had before was erased. In the last three months, the BSP and the GERB have moved to levels of around 13-15% of all those who have the right to vote on an open issue, while before the protests began they were between the 18 and the 22%, dominated by GERB. Currently, the BSP has a declarative support of 13.5% and GERB – 13%.
After the initial earthquake in July-August, in September and October, the data is more repeatable and this affects the data from the main institutions, etc. So far the exception to static is one. The number of responses such as “I will not vote” or “I do not support anyone” is growing (to a total of 37.6% this month).
This means that what is happening in the country so far rather alienates people from politics in general. That is why there is a demand for a “third option” – non-voting or extra-parliamentary and new formations. This is due to the high result, and perhaps even continued growth, of “There are such people”, to 8.6% of all eligible voters this month.
It remains to be seen whether and to what extent the situation of the new coronavirus will affect political attitudes. For example, one of the formations actively campaigning on this issue is “There are such people.”
The MRF is stable (and even showed signs of strengthening during the protest), and this month is at the level of 6.9% of all eligible voters.
Democratic Bulgaria took a “step” up in the summer, from its traditional 2-3% of all eligible voters, to almost 6%, but then did not continue and now even shows signs of erosion to 5% in October. In the balances of the internal coalition, “Yes, Bulgaria” has decisively multiplied its weight.
The other protest formation – the network around Maya Manolova – also “bounced” slightly at the beginning of the protests on the brink of entering the National Assembly. And now it’s moving along this edge with 2.5% of all eligible voters on an open issue, making a sector of roughly 140,000 potential votes. An important circumstance for Manolova is that spring and summer practically coincided with the very creation of her network. Success depends on the possibility of its expansion.
The OPs, on the other hand, have been on the brink of entering the National Assembly even before the political turmoil of the summer, and thus far they do not appear to have suffered any new serious damage from the protest. In October, they had 2.3%, or about 130,000 potential votes, around the barrier of the last elections to the National Assembly. “Will” has not been particularly affected either: the party is moving at constant levels, where it would be difficult to enter the National Assembly on its own if elections were held today. In October, Volia had 1.8% or a potential of almost 100,000 votes.
Of course, when counting votes it must be taken into account that not all are equally “hard” and in the remaining months the campaign, the “final sprint” that the different formations can do, etc. will be decisive. Among the other formations – until now – none has a visible “rebound”, but it is possible to have “hidden” support, which will manifest itself in the elections themselves. So far, seven formations have the prospect of being in the next parliament, two of which are on the brink.
The demand for early elections was shared at the beginning of the protest by more than 40%, but more than 50% opposed. In early August, however, after the hottest phase of the protests, the demand for early elections prevailed, reaching a second “in favor” against a third “against.” In September and October it stabilizes at a ratio of two to one. There is no continuous growth here either, but there is no noticeable decline.
As for the elections themselves, at this moment, those who believe that they do not seem free and fair prevail. 19.2% expect the elections to be free and fair, but 52.6% believe otherwise. The others doubt. Among the skeptics are mostly supporters of opposition formations.
The other important social factor is the arrival of the coronavirus crisis in the spring and the expected consequences for the country’s economy. The data on this indicator also shows that there is stabilization, but at new and more alarming levels. These alarming levels were first reported in July. The survey was conducted almost entirely before the first serious protests in July, so the data only reflects economic expectations, clearly influenced by the virus situation and still free of political “impurities.” The October data already shows the direction. Political instability tends to further affect massive expectations for the economy, but it became clear in October that it has so far failed to deepen anxiety. However, there is no noticeable decrease in anxiety, but again a “step” or “plateau”.
If in recent years the expectations that the economic situation will remain the same or deteriorate are between 30 and 40%, and the expectations of improvement – around 15%, after the appearance of the coronavirus, the expectations of deterioration exceeded 50% in early July, expectations of no change fell to less than a quarter and expectations of improvement to less than 10%. Specifically this month, 53.7% expect the economy to deteriorate in the near future, 24% do not expect changes and 7.8% expect an improvement. There is also a certain percentage of doubts. For the last time in the decade, these negative values were recorded in 2012.
Concerns about household finances are more moderate. This problem traditionally causes less negativity than expectations for the country’s economy in general. When he is responsible for the economy in general, the interviewee also weaves his opinion on politics, which is traditionally negative. And when he is responsible for his own home, the respondent is usually more specific in his answer.
With negative expectations for own finances, which reached 30% sharply in recent years, this limit was exceeded in July 2020, although in October there was some relief of anxiety to 29%. Positive expectations fell around one tenth, where they had not reached for a long time. In October they are 11%. Neutral expectations fluctuate around 40%, and this month in particular they are 39.4%. There are also some doubts.
In general, the expectations for household finances are not so alarming so far. This is probably due to the less pronounced rise in unemployment; judging by declarative data from Gallup International Balkan’s monthly polls, which now show 5.8%, unemployment is at higher levels compared to previous months. , but at a lower level, in the context of recent years. Once again, it should be clarified that the evolution of the new levels of infection has not yet been taken into account.
The data is part of Gallup International Balkan’s monthly independent research program. The latest survey was conducted between October 1 and 9, 2020, among 803 people who used the face-to-face method. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is ± 3.5% for 50%. 1% of the sample is equivalent to about 55 thousand people.
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