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“What we are seeing right now is an extreme increase in new coronavirus cases per day. About a week ago, I commented that there is a lag period between the time a person becomes infected and the time the patient deteriorates or eventually dies. The delay can be as long as 3 weeks, “Petar Markov, an epidemiologist and Oxford professor, commented on the air of” Hello Bulgaria. “
“This means that if we currently have a very pronounced increase in the number of infected,
we can expect an equally steep rise in the number of deaths in the coming weeks. In fact, an increase in the number of deaths is happening right now, if you follow the chart. I don’t want to commit to accurate forecasts with precise figures, it is very difficult, these things are relatively unpredictable. But we see that in the last three weeks the number of cases has increased approximately 6 times, and if we now impose this multiplication on deaths, we can easily calculate what we can expect in three weeks. A multiplication of the number of deaths cannot be ruled out as of today, “he added.
According to him, the second wave in Western Europe has a lower average age, which is indicative that fewer people die there.
“In Bulgaria, the ratio of deaths to the number of infected is higher. This is because the average age in our country is older,” explained Markov. He added that COVID-19 is constantly mutating. “This is an RNA virus that is extremely variable. We are primarily interested in mutations that affect infectivity and pathogenicity,” said the Oxford professor.
If everyone wears a mask, the transmission of the virus is reduced and there is no need for more serious measures and vice versa, the epidemiologist is inflexible.
He explained that some types of colds are caused by other types of coronavirus.
“There are indications that there is cross immunity between the other coronaviruses and the new coronavirus. That is, with a cold like this in recent years, it is possible that this protects us from the current one. But very little is known and we cannot trust it.” , said. Markov.
According to him, there is no test for the coronavirus that is 100% reliable.
See more on the subject in the video.
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