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Photo: Bloomberg |
Living under the blockade means getting up late, staying up at midnight and slowing down in the afternoon, Bloomberg writes.
Or, at least, this is shown by data on the electricity market in Europe in countries where activity restrictions have led to the general change in the daily habits of hundreds of millions of people.
The situation is similar where a lock is implemented. In New York, electricity use decreased by 18% during normal hours at 8 a.m. In Tokyo and three nearby prefectures, electricity use fell 5% on business days after Japan declared a state of emergency on April 7, according to TESLA, an energy company.
The Italian experience shows the trend more clearly, as the restrictions were introduced on March 5, before other European countries followed suit. Data from electricity operator Terna gives an idea of what other countries are just beginning to register.
People fall asleep later
People can sleep more because they don’t have to travel to the office. Generally, the demand for electricity begins to increase between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m. Now in Germany it is clear that coffee machines don’t turn on for at least 8-9 hours, says Simon Rutzen, founder of MFT Energy A / S.
Germany, France and Italy, which account for more than two-thirds of the eurozone economy, have introduced paid leave measures that allow employees to receive pay while they temporarily stop working. The UK also has a package of support measures. Many of these employees come later.
“Now I have a much more relaxed start to the day,” said David Freeman, a London-based financial services analyst. “I don’t get up until about half an hour before my daily work begins in the past,” he adds.
Not so productive afternoons
Electricity consumption in the afternoon decreases sharply. It used to grow between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. It is now falling as people go for a walk or breathe a little air. The British grid operator National Grid chart illustrates the late afternoon.
It’s like we’ve been living in a month for weeks, says Lane Staffel, a tenured professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London.
Dinner at home
At 6 p.m., electricity consumption begins to rise sharply as people finish work and start household chores. Restrictions like work and home study, which prevent you from watching television during the day, expire in the late afternoon. The graph for Germany shows the nightly peak of electricity consumption in the last hours.
Electricity consumption is highest at night, as most people are forced to stay home. Netflix announced a record 15.8 million paid subscribers, almost double the estimates of Wall Street analysts. Video streaming services like Netflix and YouTube have also found dedicated viewers. The new Disney + service has surpassed 50 million subscribers in just five months, faster than expected.
Internet traffic is skyrocketing amid a surge in apps like streaming services and Zoom. This could mean a monthly consumption of 600 gigabytes of broadband, approximately 35% more than before, according to calculations by Bloomberg Intelligence.
In Singapore, electricity use has decreased significantly since the country’s efforts to keep people at home began on April 7. Electricity consumption decreases and remains low throughout the day. But late at night is completely different, as demand has dropped dramatically immediately after the block started, but has steadily recovered in the past two weeks. This may be a sign that series like “True Crimes” and “Last Dance” are finding midnight fans in the city-state.
Stay up late
People also go to bed later. Demand began to decline only between 10 p.m. and midnight, at least an hour later.
“My children definitely go to bed later. All of our habits are gone,” says Liz Stevens, a London teaching assistant.
This creates difficulties for people who need to predict behavior: transmission system operators and electricity merchants. The estimates are based on historical data, and now nothing fits the models that estimate consumption.
We can only get closer if we watch big events like the World Cup when people are on TV at the same time, says MFT’s RATJEN.
“Forecasting is very difficult right now. The global pandemic is unknown territory,” said Chris Klimet, director of the Transactive Network Division at Reactive Technologies.
What normality will look like after the crisis is over is also an unanswered question. Different countries have to announce their measures to get out of the blockade, with Germany and Austria first loosening the restrictions and Italy maintaining strict control. Some changes may be permanent, as both employees and employers are increasingly used to working from home.
Different sectors need more
In China, which is ahead of the pandemic recovery in Europe or the United States, the sharp contraction in total electricity generation hides a change in daily habits.
Eating habits are changing. Restaurants are expanding their offering and even offering grocery delivery services as home meal preferences continue. Household electricity consumption in China may have increased due to activities such as cooking and heating, according to IHS Markit, which shows that household demand increased 2.4% in the first two months of the year, as people stayed home.
The increase in technology use has also fueled a 27% growth in China’s electricity demand from the telecommunications and web services sectors, according to the consultancy.
In general, electricity consumption in the first quarter of the year decreased 6.5% compared to the same period in 2019 to 1.57 trillion. kilowatt-hours, according to data from the China National Energy Administration. The industry consumes about 70 percent of the country’s electricity, with the retail and retail sectors accounting for 14 percent each.
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