[ad_1]
I make the following reservation: I appreciate injuries quite concise and short only according to the deceased in the country. Other defeats remain outside the assessment: the economic decline in GDP that is deeper than expected; the deterioration of the humanitarian and social situation; damage to health, education and other public sectors. It is not possible here to analyze and assess the multifaceted damage to human health due to both the epidemic and the way it is managed.
I make this attempt at evaluation because defeats, though incompletely evaluated, must be known to those involved in public debate.
On November 30, the director of Demographic and Social Statistics of the INE, Mrs. Magdalena Kostova, predicts that the total mortality rate this year will reach 120-125 a thousand people. Two weeks later, based on weekly mortality reports, we can expect the numbers to likely be between 121.2-123.7 a thousand people. The INE recalled that an average of 105-108 thousand people have died in the last 10 years.
To be narrower, I forecast the 2020 figure based on the overall death rate: 1.55% 2019. Without the Covid 19 epidemic and everything else being equal in 2019, those who died in 2020 should be 107.7 a thousand people. It is clear that the country will lose more in the middle 13.5–sixteen thousand people respectively in the optimistic and pessimistic forecast.
Forecasts indicate that in 2020 the global mortality rate in Bulgaria will be between 1.74-1.78%, which is probably a world record in UN statistics for the last decade of the 21st century.
I hope the last depressing circumstance is read and accepted:
-
of institutions that claim to be managing the health crisis,
-
of those who affirm that there is no epidemic or that Covid-19 is the common flu,
-
by those who do not comply with the recommended protection measures;
The long-awaited gloomy world record already shows unequivocally that in our country Georgi Gospodinov’s maxim: “Life, fool” is not a conviction of institutions and society.
The forecast for Covid 19 deaths, based on your two-week average, is roughly 8 thousand people by the end of 2020. Together with 107.7 thousand, approximately 115.7 thousand people who died as a result of the causes, acted in 2019 and because of the epidemic. Therefore, you can expect between 5.5-8 thousand people unexplained cases. That is, those that are due to unknown reasons. The inexplicable will be in the middle 169-200% more than the forecast of losses due to Covid 19.
The institutions are obliged to explain the reason for this increase in general mortality much greater than that of the epidemic.
The reasons should be sought in:
-
inaccuracy of statistics: it is possible that more people died from the epidemic than reported by the Single Information Portal;
-
lack of confidence in the health system and in failed attempts at self-medication;
-
the disorganization of hospital health care, which has not prevented the fatal outcome of other diseases, at least as it has in previous years;
-
the poor health of the Bulgarian population at the beginning of the epidemic, which was warned by several doctors and whose improvement never became a political objective.
I call on the skeptics to reconsider the damage to our society and get vaccinated. Life comes first. Next to him is the embrace of our loved ones, of whom we have been deprived for so many months.
Did you find this article helpful?
We would be delighted that you support the electronic edition of Mediapool.bg, so that you can continue to have an independent, professional and honest means of analysis of information.
Support us
Subscribe to the most important news, analysis and commentary on the day’s events. The newsletter is sent to your email address every day at 18:00.
Subscription
[ad_2]
