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Just a month before the November 3 US presidential election, the current head of state tested positive for coronavirus. Donald Trump will now have to meet the requirements of health authorities to meet a minimum of 14 days of quarantine.
Even if we assume that the disease will be mild and these will be the only limitations, the diagnosis has raised many questions and caused uncertainty in the United States and around the world.
Temporal uncertainty or real chaos
If Donald Trump’s health deteriorates, he has the right to temporarily cede power to Vice President Mike Pence under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution. If he is in critical condition and cannot make a decision, Pence and the cabinet can take over the government.
“There is a protocol for everything. We routinely practice what to do in the event of a terrorist or nuclear attack, but honestly, I never expected a pandemic situation like the one facing the White House right now,” said the former chief adviser to the Barak, David Axelrod. Obama
What if you both get sick at the same time and can’t do your job? So experts predict a constitutional crisis. The uncertainty about who is the incumbent president can lead to a serious political crisis, because if both leaders cannot govern, they cannot benefit from the 25th Amendment to the Basic Law.
In the most extreme and unlikely scenario, Trump and Pence lose the battle against the disease. Next in line is Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives. It is also a sword of the opposition Democratic Party, which in the current polarization of American society can generate tensions, protests and instability.
Geopolitical and economic instability depends on the severity of the symptoms of one of the most influential people in the world. Other analysts note that even if the illness is mild, isolation, reduced involvement in government affairs, and difficult contacts with public relations and advisers could lead Trump to post bombastic posts that are damaging to his own image on Twitter.
The billionaire president is known for his tendency to make extreme statements on social media, and now is the defining moment of the election campaign, and even a simple reckless post can cost him his re-election.
Patient risk
Donald Trump is an overweight elderly man, a characteristic that places him simultaneously in three risk groups of COVID patients who can develop complications.
He is 74 years old. People in the 65-74 age group are 5 times more likely to be hospitalized and 90% more likely to die than those 18-29 years old. This is according to studies from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. According to the same institution, more than 54% of COVID-19 victims are men.
1.90 meters, 111 kilograms and a body mass index of 30.5. Here are the results of Trump’s annual medical exam in June. The index is used to determine people’s healthy weight based on their height. Anything of 30 or more is a sign of a high and unhealthy weight.
A meta-analysis of world virus data shows that overweight people have a 48% higher risk of fatal disease from coronavirus than those with a normal rate. In the United States, more than two-thirds of the nearly 17,000 hospitalized were obese.
However, Trump’s position will give him access to the best possible care and, according to experts, he falls into the social strata, which is doing relatively well with the pandemic in the United States.
In the final line
A positive coronavirus test adds to the uncertainty of an already chaotic election campaign. Analysts describe the upcoming vote as a referendum on the president’s policy to address the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 200,000 people in the United States.
In more than one public address since March, Trump downplayed the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and, during the first of a series of debates, criticized his opponent, Joe Biden, for always wearing a protective mask.
The positive test and discussion about the president’s health will draw even more public attention to the coronavirus situation in America, which could prove insidious for the second-term candidate in the Oval Office. Studies cited by Bloomberg show he lags behind Biden across the country and in some of the disputed states.
Due to the quarantine imposed, the current president will likely miss the second pre-election debate on October 15, which is an opportunity to correct the first failed dispute.
