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Rospotrebnadzor has expressed the hope of a warm and sunny climate, which can limit the spread of the virus. However, how well these expectations are justified, commented by several experts and international media, writes Focus.
Russia is approaching a turning point in the fight against coronavirus infection, and the decisive factor for victory remains the responsible behavior of each person. This was announced on Friday by Health Minister Mikhail Murashko, who urged citizens to stay home to stop the pandemic.
“The Ministry of Health calls on all citizens to show solidarity with the measures implemented by the state and refrain from visiting public places,” he said.
For her part, the director of Rospotrebnadzor, Anna Popova, acknowledged that in case of non-compliance with the self-isolation regime during the May holidays, the restrictive measures should be intensified.
“The average incubation period is four to eight days. If we start breaking today, then by May 12 it will be obvious that we need to step up the measures, perhaps,” he warned.
Previously, the head of Rospotrebnadzor spoke about the next first stages of easing the restrictions. Authorities will first allow group walks of two to three people and street sports. According to her, the changes in the process of propagation of the coronavirus in the country inspire hope, but do not give absolute confidence in a constant decrease in the incidence rate.
However, the head of the Federal Biomedical Agency, Veronica Skvortsova, says that in Russia the growth rate of new cases of COVID-19 has slowed down and has stabilized at the same level in the past week.
“In fact, last week we were on a plateau for the number of new cases,” said Skvortsova. She explained that the plateau has fluctuations, a little more or less cases of infection.
The statement came after the statistics were updated. On the last day alone, 7,933 cases of infection were confirmed in 85 regions in Russia, of which 3,534 (44.5%) people did not develop clinical manifestations of the disease. On Thursday, 7099 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Russia. That’s 834 less than May 1. The increase in the number of infected per day is 7.4%.
However, in mid-April, the daily increase in infected people is 17-18%. At the same time, 1,601 people have recovered. A total of 114,431 people were infected in the country, 13,220 were recovered. There were also 96 deaths per day. During the entire period, 1,169 people died of coronaviruses in Russia.
Denis Protsenko, medical director of Moscow Hospital No. 40 in Communarka, who previously became ill with a coronavirus, identified a self-isolation disorder as the cause of the frequency jump.
“If self-isolation is not respected (this will become clear in mid-May), we are very afraid that the holidays in May will cause an explosion of disease and increase the number of hospitalized patients in 5-10 days,” said Protsenko.
The chief doctor also noted that many Russians are tired of self-isolation and may be tempted to go on vacation. “But the cost of this temptation may be too costly, it may cost the lives of our future patients,” Protsenko warned.
In other news on Friday, Rospotrebnadzor said there was good weather in good weather. (if you consider less the greater temptation of people to go outside).
According to experts, the incidence of coronavirus infections is very likely to decrease in hot weather and plenty of sunlight, as is often the case with other respiratory infections. At the same time, forecasters expect 2020 to be one of the five hottest years in the history of observations.
The director of the Institute of Health Economics, Larisa Popovic, recalled that the frequency of coronaviruses in the southern hemisphere, where it is warm and sunny in summer, “is almost the same as in the north.” An example of this is the situation in Brazil, where in the afternoon the air warms up to 28 degrees Celsius (there are more than 87,000 infected and six thousand deaths).
“In principle, each respiratory virus has a seasonal spread, but in this case we are not dealing with a normal respiratory virus.”
It does not behave like a normal virus. And how the new coronavirus will behave in the summer is very difficult to say, “said Popovic.
Another alarm is the report of the ministry of health on statistics of infant morbidity on Friday: they are more likely to become infected. Now 11 minors are in serious condition and two have died.
The ministry asked to avoid visits to any public place where children could become infected. It is emphasized that although children do not get sick as often as adults, the virus is just as dangerous to them.
Popovic does not rule out that the virus can mutate and become more dangerous for children.
“Or those children suffering from identified or undetected genetic alterations of the upper respiratory tract (the sites where the virus penetrates) could be a serious risk factor,” he said.
The expert adds that there is still no clear understanding of what genetic characteristics determine the severity of the disease.
“RNA viruses mutate rapidly and circulating strains can be different and acquire or lose their danger. It needs serious study here.
If the tendency to become infected is statistically significant, it is very dangerous, it should be carefully examined, unless it is an accidental disease of the children who were together, “said Larisa Popovic.
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