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“What is about to happen in the next 10 days is the result of what happened 20 days ago. The coronavirus has a very long incubation period, from 3 to 15 days. If there is no tightening of the measures, there will be an increase even more drastic of those infected. If they are squeezed, then the number of infected in 10 days will be about 2,000 people a day, compared to 4,000 today, “said Professor Ognian Kunchev, mathematician from BAS. According to him, we need to get things under control by May. According to the professor, COVID-19 is similar in many ways to seasonal flu, which also mutates.
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BAS also developed a long-term forecast showing what will happen to mortality from coronavirus.
“We have a pessimistic and less pessimistic scenario. If we don’t have vaccines, the death toll from COVID-19 as of June 2022 could reach 58,000. Currently, according to official figures, we have 300,000 infected. We have 12,000 dead on them. Note that there are also many unannounced cases. To obtain a real number we have to multiply 300,000 at least 4 times. So we get one million 200,000 thousand. However, if we get vaccinated, things look much better, ”explained the professor. According to him, the fourth wave of COVID-19 will arrive in September.
Watch the entire conversation on the video.
COVID-19: 2,541 new cases, the total number exceeded 300 thousand
Kunchev: shutting down for 10 days may not be enough
