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Photo: Bloomberg |
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic reminds me of how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry during the Battle of the Bulge, Henry Kissinger, a former Secretary of State and United States National Security Advisor to administrations, wrote to the Wall Street Journal. Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.
Now, at the end of 1944, there is a sense of increasing danger, directed not at a particular person, but shocking and devastating. But there is an important difference between this distant time and ours. American resistance was backed by a final national goal. Now, in a divided country, effective and forward-looking government is needed to overcome obstacles of unprecedented strength and global reach. Maintaining public trust is crucial for social solidarity, for the connection between societies and for international peace and stability.
Nations are coming together and prospering because of the belief that their institutions can anticipate disasters, halt their impact, and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic ends, institutions in many countries will be seen as bankrupt. Whether this evaluation is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is that the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. Arguing about the past now only makes it harder to do what you need to do.
The coronavirus struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its prevalence is exponential: cases in the United States double every five days. Currently there is no cure. Medical supplies are not enough to deal with the oncoming wave of cases. Intensive care units are on the verge (or beyond) of congestion. The tests are inadequate for the task of identifying the degree of infection, let alone stopping its spread. Successful vaccines probably divide us from 12 to 18 months.
The United States administration has done a solid job to prevent an immediate disaster. The final test will be whether the spread of the virus can be stopped and then reversed in a way and on a scale that maintains public confidence in the ability of Americans to control themselves. Crisis efforts, however large and necessary, should not drive the urgent task of launching parallel efforts to move to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders address the crisis primarily at the national level, but the decomposing effects of the virus on society do not recognize borders. While its impact on human health will be (hopefully) temporary, the political and economic disasters it has unleashed can continue for generations. No country, not even the United States, can overcome the virus with a purely national effort. Addressing the needs of the moment must, ultimately, be combined with a global vision and a cooperation agenda. If we cannot do this at the same time, we will face the worst individually.
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the United States is required to make great efforts in three areas. First, improve global resistance to infectious diseases. The triumphs of medical science, such as the polio vaccine and smallpox eradication, or the emerging statistical-technical miracle of medical diagnostics through artificial intelligence, have made us sleep in dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies to control infections and appropriate vaccines for a large population. Cities, states, and regions must constantly prepare to protect their populations from pandemics through storage, joint planning, and cutting-edge research.
Second, heal the wounds of the global economy. World leaders learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: the contraction caused by the coronavirus in its speed and global reach is different from anything known so far in history. And the measures necessary for public health, such as social distance and the closure of schools and businesses, contribute to economic pain. Programs should also aim to mitigate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable population.
Third, protect the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a city surrounded by walls, protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, sometimes sympathetic, but always strong enough to protect people from an external enemy. Renaissance thinkers reformulate this concept, arguing that the goal of a legitimate state is to meet the basic needs of people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. People cannot pay for these things on their own. The pandemic created an anachronism, a rebirth of a walled city at a time when prosperity depended on world trade and human movement.
World democracies must protect and defend their Enlightenment values. A global change away from the balance between power and legitimacy will break the social contract, both internally and internationally. However, this age-old question of legitimacy and power cannot be resolved at the same time as efforts to overcome Covid-19. Moderation is needed on all sides, both in domestic politics and in international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We have made the journey from the Battle of the Bulge to a world of increasing prosperity and greater human dignity. We now live in a period of time. The historical challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis as they build the future. Failure can set the world on fire.
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