Coronavirus infections likely to be in the tens of millions



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Worldwide, probably only about 6% of all people infected with coronaviruses are diagnosed, according to a study by Christian Bomer and Sebastian Folmer of the University of Gottingen. The two make this assumption based on the information they have processed about the spread of the epidemic in Germany. According to them, tens of millions are probably already infected worldwide.

Unseen

In several countries, coronavirus testing is delayed or there is a shortage of substance for the tests themselves, and this explains why in countries such as Italy and Spain, the death rate is many times higher than the number of cases detected in Germany. When it covers only a minimal proportion of patients, statistics show that the death rate is very high.

Scientists say that more than 15% of people infected with the virus are diagnosed in Germany, while in Italy, only 3.5% and in Spain, only 1.7%. The percentage of cases diagnosed in the US USA (1.6%) and in the United Kingdom (1.2%) it is even lower. For comparison, in South Korea they were able to identify almost half of those infected.

Previous studies have shown that mortality from COVID-19 is approximately 1.38%, that is, 10,000 infected die 138. However, in Italy, the death rate was almost 10 percent. This is exactly what Göttingen scientists believe that a much smaller percentage of those affected were affected, writes Deutsche Welle.

All this means that governments must be very careful with the interpretation of the numbers, says study leader Sebastian Folmer. “The huge differences show that official statistics on the number of people infected do not contain reliable information,” he said.

The German experience

Several international media outlets, including The Guardian and The New York Times, have also drawn attention to the fact that the German system has been able to reach and register a much higher percentage of patients. The New York Times notes that far more virus tests are performed in Germany than in other countries, and that all medical personnel are regularly tested, as doctors and nurses can unwittingly transmit the disease very quickly. In the fight against the disease they are also due to the very good health care in the country, both editions write.



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