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Dnevnik publishes current data related to the spread of the coronavirus in Bulgaria, provided by the state’s Unified Information System. Below, in the article, you can see graphs that describe the trends of the last months in the main indicators. – the number of infected, dead and cured, the number of patients in hospitals and intensive care units and the relationship between the total number of PCR tests performed and their positive results.
The first table shows the data for the previous day, which is often inaccurate due to technical reasons. On Sundays and Mondays, the number of new infections and tests tends to drop drastically, and the reason, according to authorities, is that on weekends many laboratories are not operating or working at reduced capacity, and that laboratories and hospitals report their results. with a delay in the unified information system. This, in turn, typically leads to a significant increase in data on new hospitalized infections and deaths on Tuesday.
In an attempt to “smooth” incidental peaks and valleys, the leading indicators are indicated in parentheses. the change in% during the last seven days from the day of notification based on daily averages (Monday is compared with the previous Monday, Tuesday with Tuesday, but not in absolute values, but after averaging the period, etc.). The arrows show a continuous uptrend in all indicators in recent weeks, which, according to experts, will continue.
Infected, cured, dead
Official statistics report as only people who tested positive from a state-approved laboratory have been infected. So far, data from growing antigen tests are not aggregated to them. According to a mathematician from the National Operational Headquarters, the real number of infected is eight times higher than the active cases announced (as of November 12, this adds up to about 470 thousand cases).
After October 13, the statistics reports as cured all infected, whose 14-day quarantine has expiredwithout further investigation. All patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged are also considered cured. Victim statistics include people who died after they were shown to be infected with a coronavirus. According to this indicator, since the beginning of the epidemic in many countries there has been a debate about how correct the notification is due to the role of comorbidities in patients.
How many are the positive tests
Statistical report PCR tests only, and only if they are manufactured in state-approved laboratories. The calculation of which part of them are positive is to some extent conditional, since it is done on the basis of the total number of tests of the day, such as The authorities do not distinguish how many of the positive results come from a study for the first time and how many are consecutive for the same patient.. However, they can be used as a guide, to the extent that after the abolition of the mandatory negative quarantine test, re-examinations should have decreased.
Hospital treatment
The need for hospital treatment is considered one of the key indicators for the development of the pandemic, as it puts great pressure on the health system and takes into account the capacity of the state to cope with the crisis. In Bulgaria, at the moment, all hospitals in districts with more than 120 infected per 100,000 inhabitants (and now this is the whole country) are obliged to allocate beds for the treatment of COVID-19. Data on how many of them are filled is announced once a week, at the National Operational Headquarters briefing on Thursday. According to data from November 5, approximately 30% of beds in medical establishments and approximately 20% of beds in intensive care units are occupied.
According to the indicator of sick per 100,000 inhabitants, which is monitored as the main one in most European countries, Bulgaria is currently above 300 above 100 thousand, due to the imposition of stricter restrictive measures.
