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Tens of thousands participated in the September 2 protest, one of the largest in recent years. Its size did not seem to be enough to convince Borissov that he should leave immediately. But it was enough to show him that remaining in power would make him a figure hated by most people and seriously damage his party.
The atmosphere of the protest was saturated with the anticipation of some result. There were also participants who sought escalation and violence: Vazrazhdane party supporters in the morning and agitators (paid or not) in the evening. The clashes with the police, targeted by these actors, understandably garnered a lot of media attention. In addition, these isolated events were not dangerous for the authorities, but rather helped them: they gave them the opportunity to try to put all the protesters under a negative common denominator. However, these incidents were not enough to discredit the protest in its entirety. On top of that, the police themselves also took controversial measures: both peaceful protesters and journalists were beaten.
In short, the “Great Uprising of the People” did not overthrow the government, but was involved in an escalation of social confrontation, in a metaphorical “war” that it could not win. Over the next month, the government will participate in military exercises and exercises that make no sense and will only lose credibility and reputation. Here are the four main “operations”:
1. Operation “Grand National Assembly”
The leader in nonsense is attempting to convene the Supreme National Assembly. GERB, the Patriots and Volia finally got the 120 votes needed to present a “draft constitution.” This is supposedly an “improved” version of the embarrassing text that was previously distributed. However, the new version runs the risk of being even more revealing in terms of content, because it will also contain a preamble written by IMRO. But perhaps this text is not worth reading, because the BSP and the MRF have already stated that they will not support the Supreme National Assembly. And so the possibility of the required 160 votes disappeared. If GERB hopes to “buy” votes from the BSP, it would be even more embarrassing: a new constitution is not made with such slaps.
What really makes Operation VNS meaningless is not the 160 missing votes, but the fact that GERB doesn’t know what they want to change in the constitution. They even admitted that their proposals were simply an “invitation to debate.” In fact, however, this debate would give the Supreme National Assembly carte blanche to adopt any constitution. That is, with the opportunistic goal of staying in power, the GERB tends to sacrifice the constitution without being convinced that what it offers is necessary at all.
When we add the proposals of its partners – educational degrees, mandatory barracks, expanded presidential powers, etc., the picture becomes even more absurd. The fantasies of critically humble politicians are beginning to find their way to basic law. Nonsense becomes dangerous.
2. Operation Referendum
To secure IMRO support, GERB signed an “agreement” to hold a referendum (along with elections for the Supreme National Assembly) on an elected educational qualification and mandatory barracks. The second question is political nonsense, while the first, about educational qualifications, is a violation of fundamental constitutional principles. According to the Bulgarian Constitution, the European Convention on Human Rights and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU, the right to vote cannot be restricted for educational reasons.
With its “agreement” GERB violates our legislation as well as the (mandatory for Bulgaria) rules of the EU, the Council of Europe and the OSCE. The very idea of supporting a referendum of this kind is a political ruin for a party that aims to lead Bulgarians to European development.
3. Operation “Keep Geshev at all costs”
GERB is guarded by Geshev, and Geshev is guarded by GERB and Borisov. This is the military operation that most discredits the rulers. The protests were launched over corruption issues: for the 700 million who disappeared from the Treasury and who took advantage of them at the peak of politics; for the expired files of the Prime Minister for dealing with politicians; for the locker in Boyana; for the house in Barcelona; for the port and the thermal power station of Varna; “Rosenets”, etc. Instead of convincing action on these issues, the Bulgarian prosecution registered the presidency and targeted those who were uncomfortable with power. And GERB is proposing a new constitution, in which the regulation of the Prosecutor’s Office and its owner will simply be specified.
(Interestingly, GERB supporters do not ask their party leaders for quick and convincing answers to these questions. In the end, only those answers can permanently rehabilitate Borisov and give his party a good political perspective. The lack of such pressure from Borissov’s supporters show that they themselves fear the answers to these questions.)
4. Operation “Distance from MRF”
The further GERB “distances” from the MRF, the clearer it becomes that the two parties are Siamese twins. The resignations of three key ministers for “ties to the MRF” were an example of proof of a connection through their denial. Yesterday, the MRF reinforced this effect with its position. The movement did not support the Supreme National Assembly’s request and demanded Borissov’s resignation, but kindly linked it to the resignation of Rumen Radev. That is, Borissov may not be in a hurry with his own resignation. And the MRF wants Radev’s resignation, because Radev wants Geshev’s resignation. The MRF protects Geshev, for which the Movement needs Borissov. These eastern tricks can be considered high politics, but now they are transparent to everyone.
However, the MRF was right about one thing yesterday. One way out of the situation is the resignation of Borisov and the formation of something like an “expert” cabinet. It is important for the MRF that the political majority in parliament continue to pull the strings in the country. In this way, Borisov would ensure sufficient political protection in the event of his resignation as prime minister. A variation on this plan could also come from President Radev. He could propose to Borissov that he negotiate an interim prime minister, against whom the parliament would pass legislation on the necessary budget reserves during the interim government. But since the confrontation between Borissov and Radev is too great, the option proposed by the MRF remains: an expert government.
However, for at least a month, Borissov and GERB will carry out the four aforementioned operations in the opportunistic hope that things will fix themselves: the protests will simply disappear and people will forget why they protested. But this will not happen and with renewed vigor the society will return to the central themes: the resignations of Borisov and Geshev.
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