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Prime Minister Boyko Borissov spoke forcefully about Bulgaria’s economy on Friday morning, hours before Eurostat released relatively weak data on the country’s GDP in the summer, when the business was expected to revive after the spring lockdown on Covid. -19.
The economies of the EU registered an economic growth almost three times higher than the Bulgarian During the summer months (July to September), it is clear from the express data on GDP for the third quarter of 2020, which is currently available for 20 countries of the community.
On average, in the third quarter, EU economies grew by 11.6% compared to April-June 2020, while Bulgaria’s GDP growth was only 4.3%, Eurostat announced. This means that the Bulgarian economy registered a weak recovery in the summer, although in the spring the economic recession was comparable to the European average (contraction of 10.1% in Bulgaria compared to 11.4% in the EU).
While Bulgaria grew by 4.3%, the Czech Republic recorded a quarterly growth of 6.2%, Poland – 7.7%, Slovakia – 11.7%, Hungary – 11.3%, Germany – 8.2% and the southern countries most affected by the crisis, which contracted sharply. in the spring, it now rebounds with high values: Italy – 16.1% growth, Spain – 16.7%, France – 18.2%.
These relatively weak data for Bulgaria collide with the prime minister’s invigorating speech on Facebook on Friday. In his post, he boasts that while “Europe and the world are in crisis, Bulgarian production is growing.” The prime minister refers to another Eurostat announcement, on Thursday, according to which The growth of industrial production in Bulgaria in September (2.3%) is one of the highest in the EU. This is true, but the report also shows that September’s “success” is rather a unique phenomenon, because in May, June and July Bulgarian industrial production is much weaker compared to the European average.
This does not prevent the Prime Minister from reaching the general conclusion that the Bulgarian economy is in “upload.”
“Production in Bulgaria continues to increase for the fifth month in a row. Something that many countries in Europe cannot boast of. This positive data comes in the context of an unprecedented global crisis. Production in the EU is stagnant and in countries The eurozone is deteriorating. I listen to our opponents for a few days how we lost time in the summer. While they were just talking, we worked. We supported companies and workers with a series of measures and the economy did not stop working. We built roads and factories While the candidates for power. They thought about the elections, we think about the people. And the European statistics show it. “ thinks the Prime Minister.
Meanwhile, the Eurostat GDP data show other discrepancies.
The government expects the end of 2020 to end with just a 3% decline in the economy, as indicated in the still unaccepted second update of the 2020 Budget. increasingly unfeasible.
The reason is that The country’s GDP contracted by 5.2% in the third quarter, from July to September, on an annual basis, the data show. In the first quarter of the year the economy grew by 2.3%, in the second there was a strong contraction of 8.6%. With the decline recorded in the summer, it will be difficult to reach an annual decline of just 3%, given that further negative effects on the economy are expected in the fourth quarter due to the pandemic.
In its autumn forecast, published a few days ago, the European Commission announced that it expects a 5.1% contraction of the Bulgarian economy for the year.
The economist Georgi Angelov however, he believes that the Eurostat news is good. He noted that the EC autumn forecast differs significantly from reality, especially in terms of quarterly data.
“The latest EC forecast for the Bulgarian economy expected growth for the third quarter of 0.4% quarterly. Today’s preliminary data shows growth of 4.3% quarterly. The recovery is moving 10 times faster that the forecast continued and within a year we will have forgotten that there was a crisis “, Angelov is hopeful.
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