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– Associate Professor Kunchev, is COVID-19 changing and in the context of other countries the mortality that we have been reporting lately is really high?
– Whether the virus changes or not is a serious research question. That is why it is difficult to give an unequivocal answer to this question. In general, COVID-19 is not one of the most variable viruses, it is even relatively stable. If we compare it to the seasonal flu, so far it doesn’t show who knows what changes.
No one can predict whether it will continue to be so. So far it is stable, which is good from the point of view of making a vaccine. If it is effective, a new strain will not surprise us so quickly. As for mortality, it is really worrying.
To some extent, it is because it affects older ages and risk groups, where it is generally more serious. That is why we said that people 65-70 years of age with chronic diseases are most at risk. This is constantly tested.
Of course, there may be other reasons: if people don’t pay enough attention and seek medical help late, if there are complications, or there is a delay in admission, all of these options are possible. But so far no one can say for sure.
– Has the virus become more aggressive or vice versa?
“It is not the other way around.” It is difficult to draw scientific conclusions, but my experience seems to show that the virus is relatively easier to transmit and that the average age of positives has definitely dropped, I am not talking about the sick here. And I can say that it is not a medical problem for those under 18 years of age. So I am somewhat more optimistic about opening schools.
I know that parents are very worried, they have a reason. Each meeting in a place hides certain risks, but no one can say how long this situation will last. It could be a year or two, so we have to get used to living with the virus. I recently participated in a 3 hour conference call.
He was interested in how they see things in Denmark, Israel, Italy. I can tell you the same thing happens to us. Everyone begins face-to-face training at school, creating a kind of barrier. The idea is to make the so-called cocoons or balloons of 18 to 20 children in a class.
They are in contact with each other because there is no way around it, the point is not to have contact with other students. This is achieved through several measures: abandoning the practice of moving to other classrooms and that children are alone in their classroom, not being at the same time in breaks, in the morning to have a filter, which is very important.
It is risky to take children even with a light clinic. My request is that parents do not do that. I know they are difficult, but create risks for others. Of course, wear protective gear and rely on disinfection. Although I am not very optimistic in small classes about whether students will wear masks where and when.
We will not have it in our classrooms, but there are some countries where children will be protected during school hours. For me, however, this is a bit of a stretch. But the idea that schools will be a special place of infection is not true. It is logical that what happens in society also happens there.
Naturally, there will also be cases in schools, and this should come as no surprise. But there will not be more, nor will the incidence rate be different. Even if they are not present in the classrooms, the children are not locked up at home and will have contacts in other places.
– Will the UV lamps that bothered some mothers be used? You are safe?
– I sincerely recommend them. There is an amazing surface disinfection, in which there is nothing wrong. If you don’t use COVID, this will prevent many other infections. Statistics have even shown that our infectious diseases are half of last year, precisely because of these measures. This should not be discounted.
But 90%, especially at risk ages, the virus is transmitted when you talk to someone and it is in the air. If it hits surfaces, its life is relatively short. That is why we must take everything into account, and the use of masks, hygiene, distances and more. However, air disinfection is extremely important, especially since we have gained more experience.
There is fear of these lamps, it is true that in the past they were used that were powerful, open. We smelled ozone everywhere. But modern lamps emit only in the ultraviolet sector and are hidden in a tube through which a fan blows the air. So in no way will it affect anyone. However, they are more expensive and I don’t think they can be installed.
– Do you expect a drastic jump in the number of patients during the fall-winter season?
– I don’t want to make predictions. Here I want to point out that the number of positive cases is not that great now. We keep looking a bit at our own stats and don’t compare, and that’s detrimental. Bulgaria and Serbia currently have the lowest morbidity in the Balkans. We have 26 for every 100,000 inhabitants and Serbia 24.
This is a pretty good indicator. Montenegro has 168, Romania is much more than us. But the trend is that the situation in the Balkans has now moved to Europe, and there are high values. The incidence has increased in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Everything is developing in a very dynamic way. More worrying is the number of deaths.
The number of hospitalized is stationary and, in general, those who need intensive treatment are kept. They are in their 70s. This is kept under control, but overall mortality is high and many healthcare workers continue to be affected, which worries me very much.
That is why we organize the training of specialists in separate cities of the country for protection, the use of protective equipment. We will probably expand it. It is not that colleagues do not know, but it is one thing to know, and another is to do it every day.
– Were you surprised that a few days ago the WHO set Sweden as an example to face the pandemic?
– Yes, I read it with surprise. Honestly, I don’t see any reason for that. The decline in the Swedish national product is comparable to ours, and to say that they have saved their economy and that we have failed ours is not true. Not to mention that there are 600 dead in our country and 6,000 in them, if the price were to sacrifice 6,000 people, maybe we would be like them.
I’m still not convinced that Sweden is the best example. Of course, there will be different opinions, but I think that so far we have met the goal of keeping the epidemic under some control. The reason is not to crush the healthcare system so that we can treat people.
– If there is a drastic jump in the number of patients in autumn, is it possible to return more restrictive measures?
– No, for now I can say it firmly. Of course, in separate branches there may be some closed establishments, productions, small settlements, but in entire regions – regional cities in any case. This has been seen to be very damaging to the economy and I don’t think it will have much of an effect from a purely epidemiological point of view.
It’s just that people will really have to learn to live with it, it became clear that the virus will not go away in a few months. The question is to get to the moment when the vaccine will appear. In fact, it already exists, I mean at a very advanced stage, and we are part of the negotiations. They even want us to state the numbers we will receive from Astra Zeneca.
However, it is especially important whether the vaccine will be effective, but so far no one can say. A lot of money and effort has been invested, it should have a good effect. But we have to see everything in practice, and until there is a permit from the European Medicines Agency, we cannot say what is good.
The European Commission has decided to distribute quotas according to the population so that there are not privileged. The other question is how many people will be willing to get vaccinated. I am not very optimistic here, because we have an example with immunization against influenza.
With him, we are at the end of Europe in percentages. And looking at the reactions on the forums, there are still people who don’t even believe that there is a virus. This is very disturbing and makes our work difficult.
– Have summer viruses and other illnesses really decreased due to precautionary measures?
– Absolutely, it turned out that disinfection, hand washing and avoidance of contact affect all infectious diseases, from measles and chicken pox to summer viruses.
The decrease in some is 50% and in around 75%. We have not had measles cases for 2-3 months, this is due more to the distance between the contacts.
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