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Traditional actors in the political field in Bulgaria are overshadowed by a personal qualification of two other popular figures who have recently started new political projects: showman Slavi Trifonov and former ombudsman Maya Manolova. This was commented by the sociological agency “Alpha Research” to data from a survey conducted among 1,031 Bulgarian adults at the end of September.
36% of those surveyed trust Slavi Trifonov and 32.9% trust Maya Manolova. At the same time, distrust towards the showman is 26.8% and towards the former ombudsman, 33.7%. Alpha Research is measuring the ratings of the two new political players for the first time. The situation is radically different with the leader of the third new project, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, who at the time of the launch of the “Republicans” started with a 3 percent personal approval.
If the elections were held today, we would most likely have a six-party parliament, which, given the positions and (incompatibilities) between the main political forces, would face serious difficulties in nominating a government, Alpha Research commented.
The two main characteristics of public attitudes at the end of September: a serious decline in confidence in the government and uncertainty about the outcome of the political crisis, have a direct impact on electoral attitudes, analysts say. Among those who firmly decided to vote, GERB and BSP converge positions, as GERB continues to lead 0.9 percent ahead of the left (20.5 percent versus 19.6 percent). The analysis shows that the apparently paradoxical retention of the GERB’s positions is due to two main factors: the mobilization of the hard core and the weak transition of its voters to rival right-wing parties.
Graphics: Alpha Research
The protests began with a strong call for modernization, but in the course of them the strongest impetus was given to the left-wing populist protest vote, leading to upcoming “new” projects, sociologists say. Precisely for this effect, “There are people like that” by Slavi Trifonov it is still the third political force (with 14.9 percent of voter support), but with a slight decrease in mobilization to vote among its supporters. The “Democratic Bulgaria” maintains a strong jump in its support since the beginning of the protests, but for the moment without a major accumulation (9.4 percent of the voters). Thus, it shares the 4th-5th place with the MRF, which also marks the internal mobilization and reaches 9.9 percent of the votes. The bonus that new protest projects received from the mass demonstrations is also evident in the growth of Maya Manolova’s “Stand Up BG” (up to 4.6 percent of voters). the biggest losers are the United Patriots (3.8 percent) and Will (0.3 percent), who remain below the line for now.
Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s “Republicans for Bulgaria” would receive 0.2 percent, according to the data.
Alpha Research notes that 10.1 percent of those determined to vote still choose who to support, which can reorganize a number of positions in a real voting situation. There are two main challenges in developing public attitudes before elections, be they regular or early: first, whether a strong right-wing modernization alternative to GERB will grow, and second, whether the party’s new projects will remain attractive when presenting their new faces and programs. analyzers.
Alpha Research’s periodic quarterly survey of national representatives shows continued support for the protests, a deepening erosion of trust in institutions, the prime minister and the government, an unclear exit from the political crisis and the consolidation of the inner core of GERB.
About two-thirds of adult Bulgarians (66.2 percent) Continue to express your principled support for the protests. in the country, despite reservations about its composition and means of expression. However, there is an interesting trend compared to the data initially recorded in July: categorical support for them in Sofia decreases and in the smaller settlements it increases. The study shows that individual social groups project their own problems and expectations on the protest, which gives it a broader reading and response based on the involvement of the immediate participants in it.
Graphics: Alpha Research
Protests, clashes between institutions and an intensified media focus on corruption are increasing the erosion of trust in those in power. Government approval is set at a critical 12.8 percent, and parliament approval falls to 7.6 percent, with more than 60 percent distrust. Chief prosecutor Ivan Geshev, who took office with 27% support, is now approved by 12.2%, with 54.6% critical appraisals. Only the police managed to increase their levels of trust, and in September the positive evaluations of their activities, in contrast to the situation in July, began to slightly dominate the negative ones (30.2 percent: 27.7 percent).
Graphics: Alpha Research
The main line of political confrontation since the beginning of the “president-prime minister” protests has caused an increase in distrust towards the two great institutional figures. However, the losses are much more significant for Boyko Borissov than for Rumen Radev. President Radev marked a slight decrease in positive ratings (by 1.6 percent), criticism rose more strongly (by 6 percentage points), but with an approval ratio of 42 percent: disapproval of 28.6 percent, maintains a positive balance in their personal valuation.
Graphics: Alpha Research
Prime Minister Borissov lost another three confidence points compared to July, and distrust also increased by 6 percent. With a 20.3 percent approval rating, his rating is close to K. Ninova’s (19.8 percent).
Immediately after them is the leader of “democratic Bulgaria” Hristo Ivanov (15.5 percent). Among GERB’s coalition partners, Krassimir Karakachanov’s ratings are relatively the highest (12.1 percent), but with him, as with all leaders on this spectrum, there is a progressive decline in confidence.
Graphics: Alpha Research
In general, traditional actors in the political field are overshadowed by the personal qualifications of two other popular figures who have recently launched new political projects: Slavi Trifonov (36 percent confidence: 26.8 percent distrust) and Maya manolova (32.9 percent: 33.7 percent). The situation with the leader of the third new project is radically different, Tsvetan Tsvetanov, which at the time of the launch of the “Republicans” began with 3 percent personal approval.
Bulgarians welcomes the fall-winter season with a significant dose of pessimism and uncertainty, according to the study. However, unlike the spring, when fears were concentrated around the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the biggest concern at this time is not the health situation, but the economic and political situation. 50 percent expect the economy to deteriorate in the coming months, compared to 15.3 percent: improvement. 14.9 percent expect a resolution of the political crisis, 54 percent – its exacerbation. In this context, concerns about the spread of the coronavirus take a back seat – 22.6 percent are optimistic, 31.9 percent – pessimistic. However, these figures alone are not cause for optimism, because the underestimation of the virus and precautionary measures can have a boomerang effect, deepening health and therefore an escalation of economic and political crises.
If the diagnosis of the current situation with the dangerous dominant tendency to delegitimize institutions is clearly visible, then the result remains very unclear, say sociologists. With 66 percent supporting the protests, only 44 percent insist on immediate resignation from the cabinet and snap elections, analysts say. 56 percent are in favor of periodic elections, of which 31 percent believe that the government should continue its work until they are held, and 25 percent are in favor of a cabinet of experts to complete the mandate.
Uncertainty reigns over another key issue: what is the best alternative to the current government, declared by “Alpha Research”. Opinions are extremely diverse, not only in society, but also among supporters of the main political forces. 17.6 percent recognize Rumen Radev as Borissov’s political opponent and believe that the solution lies in the creation of his party project. Fifteen percent, mainly supporters of Slavi Trifonov, trust the “all against GERB” formula. 9.4 percent are in favor of a “left-wing alternative,” and supporters of BSP and Maya Manolova doubt between this option and the unification around Radev. 12.2 percent are for the “correct alternative.” He has the support of about 75 percent of “democratic Bulgaria” supporters, but also about a fifth of those of GERB and United Patriots. 14.5 percent of voters, mainly from parties that support the government, believe that there is no acceptable alternative.
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