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Five months before the last moment for the elections in the country, the regular March vote, GERB and BSP have practically the same opportunities, and six political formations would enter the future parliament. There is still a serious core of voters who are determined to vote, but they are still choosing for whom and the results may change.
This is demonstrated by the data from the latest nationally representative survey of the sociological agency “Alpha Research”. It was carried out between September 21 and 30, 2020, among a sample of 1031 adult citizens and is part of the quarterly monitoring of the socio-political attitudes of Bulgarian citizens of the agency.
A slight descent at Slavi Trifonov
If the elections were today, it is most likely that we would have a 6-party parliament that, given the positions and (incompatibilities) between the main political forces, would face serious difficulties in nominating a government, say sociologists.
The positions of GERB and BSP are equal, as the ruling and leading opposition forces get about 20 percent of the votes of those who are determined to vote. In a previous Alfa Research poll in July, commissioned by Dnevnik, Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s party took 26.7% of the left 19.2. Now GERB still has a 0.9 percent advantage and according to sociologists, the apparently paradoxical retention of the party’s position is due to two main factors: the mobilization of the hard core and
weak transition of its voters to competing right-wing parties.
Slavi Trifonov’s “There Are Such People” remains in third place. It has a slight outflow of votes: 14.9% of voters are willing to support it against 18.8% in July. According to the sociological agency, the decline is due to the fact that while the protests began with a “strong request for modernization”, in the course of the greatest momentum was the protest of the left-populist vote, flowing into the next “new” projects.
The “democratic Bulgaria” keeps the jump, the MRF grows
The “democratic Bulgaria” maintains a strong jump in its support since the beginning of the protests, but currently without major accumulation (9.4% of voters compared to 12.3% in July). Thus, it shares fourth / fifth place with the MRF, which also marks the internal mobilization and reached 9.9% of the votes (an increase of 1.6% in July).
The bonus that new protest projects received from the mass demonstrations is also evident in the growth of Maya Manolova’s “Stand Up.bg” (up to 4.6% of voters). %) and Veselin Mareshki’s “Will” (0.3%), which remain below the line for now.
The newly formed party of the former second person in GERB Tsvetan Tsvetanov – “Republicans for Bulgaria”, so far has the support of 0.2 percent of those who decided to vote.
Voters who can change positions
It should also be noted that 10.1% of those who are determined to vote still choose who to support, which can reorganize various positions in a real voting situation.
There are two main challenges in developing public attitudes before elections, be they regular or early: first, whether a strong right-wing modernization alternative to GERB will grow and, second, whether the party’s new projects will remain attractive when presenting their new faces and shows.
Resignation or cabinet until the end of the term
The outcome of the crisis seems too confusing, the study shows. With 66% supporting the protests, only 44% insist on the immediate resignation of the cabinet and early snap elections, and a total of 56% favor regular elections. Opinions on one of the key issues, what is the best alternative to the current government, are mixed only in society, but also among supporters of the main political forces, Alpha Research reports.
17.6% recognize President Rumen Radev as the political opponent of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and believe that the solution lies in the creation of his party project.
15% – mainly supporters of Slavi Trifonov, trust the formula “all against GERB”.
9.4% are in favor of a “left alternative”, and supporters of BSP and Maya Manolova doubt between this option and the unification around Radev.
12.2% corresponds to the “correct alternative”. It has the support of about 75% of the supporters of “democratic Bulgaria”, but also about one fifth of those of GERB and United Patriots.
14.5% of voters, mainly from official parties, believe that there is no acceptable alternative.
Support for protests
About two-thirds of adult Bulgarians (66.2%) continue to express principled support for protests in the country, despite reservations about their composition and means of expression, according to the survey.
However, sociologists report an interesting trend compared to the data initially recorded in July: unequivocal support for the protests in Sofia decreases, while in the smaller settlements it increases. The study shows that individual social groups project their own problems and expectations on the protest, which gives it a broader reading and response from the commitment of the immediate participants in it, says the analysis of the study.
