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For the first time since the beginning of his term, the presidential rating is the same as that of the prime minister.
The coronavirus pandemic is changing the lives of millions of people, hundreds of companies and dozens of professions. Despite the scale and existential depth of these turns, current political leaders and their eventual successors invariably remain in the public interest, for at least three main reasons. First, because in times of crisis, a sense of self-preservation always leads people to “gather under national flags,” but you never know how long this process will last. Secondly, because crises, as is well known, are both a threat and an opportunity. The question is for whom, for the ruling party or for the opposition? And third, because two types of elections, parliamentary and presidential, are already knocking on Dondukov’s opposite doors, and the way the crisis is managed creates or takes away strategic opportunities.
Alpha Research’s representative national survey, conducted among 1000 adult residents of the country through a telephone interview in the period from April 28 to May 5, 2020. shows that during this first stage of the crisis, politicians who put the The lives and health of people above the economy are positive. As a result, the two-month state of emergency has led to the following shift in positions on the chessboard of Bulgarian politics:
Decrease in the personal rating of President Rumen Radev, whose scale we have not registered during his term. A decrease that has two numerical and one structural dimensions. Numeric: erosion of positive evaluations by 8 percent (from 48% in December to 40% in early May); 10 percent jump in negative reviews, 15 to 25 percent). Structural change, for the first time since the inauguration of the head of state, the president and the prime minister have the same confidence (40% – for Radev, 40% – for Borisov). This parity creates a radically different dynamic and intrigue before the upcoming presidential elections in the fall of next year, for which Radev has been the strongest candidate so far. Although indirectly, the ratings dance stemming from the coronavirus crisis could have a significant impact on the upcoming parliamentary elections, as the opposition will not be able to rely so heavily on the strength of one of its few speakers with the ability to influence the public opinion. opinion
Boyko Borissov’s overall rating increase, as he reached the second highest relative values after the first “golden” years of his first term: 40% positive evaluations of his activity (10 percent increase compared to December) , 31% negative (decrease of 8 percent compared to December). Seen in a slightly shorter hindsight, the last time the Prime Minister had a positive rating, but with a minimal predominance of approval over disapproval (37%: 35%) in June 2018, at the end of the Bulgarian presidency of The EU.
Although it is still too early to draw long-term conclusions, three significant public attitudes can be said to determine this “countermovement” in the ratings of the two generals.
First, the unusual for the consolidation of Bulgarian society behind the thesis that there are things that we cannot do worse than many other countries. 40% think that our country is doing better than most European countries in the fight against COVID-19, according to 38%, in some areas we are doing better, in others worse and only 14%, believes we do worse in everything. This evaluation logically improves the position of the executive branch, which assumed responsibility for the measures it took to counter the crisis and, on the contrary, worsens those of the president, who was one of the main opponents and critics of the strategy.
Assessment of how Bulgaria is coping with the coronavirus crisis compared to other European countries
Secondly, for public opinion, the result of direct confrontations between the Prime Minister and the President is in favor of the Prime Minister. Given the recent distance in their confidence levels, this is a fairly serious reversal of attitudes, even if only temporarily. 34% approve of Borissov’s position on measures to limit the spread of the coronavirus in the initial acute phase of the crisis, while 27% support Radev’s position. Assessments of their positions on speed and focus of economic recovery are closer (28% approve of the Prime Minister’s thesis versus 24%) of the President.
Support for the positions of Prime Minister and President in relation to the coronavirus crisis.
Approval of anti-crisis measures taken by the government in relation to the coronavirus
Third, despite the noisy extreme opinions expressed, the representative sample of public attitudes shows strong support both for the measures taken during this period and for the way in which people have benefited from them. 70% approve of health quarantine measures and feel more secure with them. 60%: measures in education and especially the timely introduction of distance learning for their children. 52% support the social measures launched targeting the most vulnerable and at-risk groups. The predominantly critical sentiments are present only towards the still unclear economic measures, which may be the factor that will tip the balance in the coming months. If we look at current expectations, we will also see that, although tired or nervous about limitations, people are still dominated by fear and caution: they prefer a slower and more gradual return to normality, with fewer changes and more predictable actions. (40%), versus high or very slow speed. In this sense, until now Borissov has managed to reconcile the main public states of mind: fear of life and personal and family health, and impatience to get out of social isolation. Radev took a more ideological position in defense of “citizenship and the economy”, which, however, “hung” from the media, since his main voters are not energetic young people, who are the main exponents of such feelings, but much riskier and, therefore, people from older age groups who are more concerned about their own health. Which led to a drop in their support.
Evaluation of the work of the President of the National Operational Headquarters Gen. V. Mutafchiiski
Assessment of the most appropriate approach to facilitate quarantine measures
The two-month state of emergency led to a double negative result for the main opposition force, BSP. Their leader Cornelia Ninova lost 6 support points and her rating fell to 15%. The former president on the left, M. Mikov, had comparable values in 2015-2016, before being replaced by Ms. Ninova. The impact on electoral support for the BSP seems even more serious. Compared to December, the party lost about a third of its potential voters (from 21.5% to 12.2%). If you don’t overcome this negative development during the expected economic downturn by attracting financially troubled voters, you risk becoming a donor of votes for other political forces.
Dynamics in public confidence in the BSP leader December 2019 – May 2020
At the end of the state of emergency, GERB crosses the threshold of the expected “normalization” with a serious advantage in the field of electoral attitudes. Holding its pre-crisis positions almost unchanged (20.8%), only due to the erosion of the BSP (up to 12.2%), it gained almost double the electoral advantage over it. Slavi Trifonov’s hypothetical formation remains in third place. However, the actual electoral positions of this party, if it goes to the polls, can be quite flexible and this can lead to changes in other political forces. There are no significant changes in the other political entities. Almost all lose slightly from the crisis, incl. the small partner of the United Patriots coalition, which remains in the shadow of the great ruler.
Electoral attitudes: parliamentary elections
Therefore, the recap of the first stage of the crisis shows that, like many other countries, politicians in Bulgaria received support, making limiting the health consequences of the pandemic a priority, even at the cost of restrictive measures. for people’s daily lives. However, this time, at least at this stage, it is coming to an end, and the positive aspects of the current situation seem to have been consumed. From now on, the parallel battle will be for personal physique but also for the economic health of society. Whoever has a clearer vision, proposes more feasible measures and can balance the different interests of individual social groups will receive the new strategic advantage.
Finally, if we allow ourselves a more refreshing summary of the political situation of chess after the painful two months of social distancing, we can summarize it as briefly as possible: two generals converge their qualifications well below the safe two meters, a new general enters on stage. at a solid distance from the rest, with enviable 60% approval and only 15% disapproval. The chess game continues …
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