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The political scientist was also adamant about President Radev’s intentions. “The head of state works systematically for his goal: to rule Bulgaria,” explained Assistant Professor Stoychev.
According to him, tolerating lockdowns in the pandemic is a sign of weak statehood. “The protest did not make sense from the beginning in a pandemic situation,” he said.
Who is he?
Associate Professor Stoycho Stoychev graduated in Political Science from Central European University in Budapest. He teaches Political Risk Analysis in the Department of Political Science at the University of Sofia. Head of the Electoral Systems and Technologies Laboratory (LIST). His research is in the field of political risk, corruption, organized and domestic crime.
This is what Adjunct Professor Stoycho Stoychev said in an interview with “Maritsa” about the current political problems in Bulgaria:
– Who will always benefit more politically from the fear of the people in a crisis, the ruling party or the opposition?
– The populist discourse is currently a more profitable strategy for the opposition. The government generally played its trump card to gain trust during the first quarantine. Now there are even people who say that the government is almost inventing more deaths, a more serious epidemic situation to suppress the protest and end it. Which is an absurd claim. But apparently there are people who have not personally encountered a case of COVID-19 and claim that it does not exist. Some people take advantage of the complex situation to fish in muddy waters.
– Associate Professor Stoychev, to what extent and how do you think that the tightening of measures against the crisis of the crown, accompanied by fears and dissatisfaction of the population, can affect pre-electoral attitudes?
– It depends on the duration of the period in which they will be applied.
If this crisis situation and the measures do not persist, say, a month or two before the elections, the effect is likely to be less. If they persist, such effects mobilize people around the rulers, that is. they are beginning to trust institutions more. We already saw this during the first quarantine.
However, we are now seeing much greater resistance to the measures, which is actually a reaction from the people to the protests in practice. Because these more than 100 days of protests with the tolerance of the blockades showed in the first place a weak statehood.
Tolerating blockades, throwing eggs, any other more brutal protest, even bordering on vandalism, shows the common man that the State does not exist, that the authorities do not dare to bring order. And this leads to a general sense of impunity.
– Didn’t the protest lose meaning, even in the conditions of a covid crisis?
“It didn’t make sense from the beginning.” In a coronavirus situation, when other countries took the time to clean their systems, to reorganize, we paralyzed the country for three months with a protest in which there are many people without masks.
The biggest risk today are paralyzed institutions. So we lost three months, which was an opportunity to prepare for flu season, in which infections will certainly increase. This is the big problem. Instead, some people used this precious time to shake off power, to demand power, which shows utter irresponsibility.
How could the protesters, who had put up with Borisov for 10 years, not be able to hold out for a few more months ?! Apparently, the opposition wants elections now because of the possibility of a better electoral result. The goal is to win the elections, no matter who dies or who lives.
– Is the option of early elections not already relevant?
– It is not. Even from the rhetoric of the protest people it is clear that they themselves are already convinced of it. At the moment, the protest continues on its own, to keep the rating of the prime minister and the cabinet low, to be a thorn in the side of the ruling party. The problem is that at some point this thorn becomes part of everyday life. We Bulgarians love seira, but it should be varied, not worn. The watchmakers themselves get bored.
– What will be the effect of the latest scandal surrounding President Rumen Radev in Estonia?
– The president, of course, makes his mistakes. And that mobilized his critics. Mr. Radev went to this forum because he wants to show that he is not in international isolation. This type of complex started with President Georgi Parvanov, who was a strong president, but no one invited him to Western Europe. At the moment, Radev is trying to impose his NATO identity and visits like Estonia’s are extremely important to him and he wants to do them at any cost.
Mr. Radev behaves in an atypical way for a Bulgarian president, with whom, according to the constitution, he is expected to be moderate, not to get into sharp confrontations. President Plevneliev was the first to clash with Oresharsky’s cabinet. But this goes beyond the norm for a president, which for Bulgaria should be something of a pacifier, a factor that brings calm. While President Radev only brings tension and negativity to the political system.
In fact, Mr. Radev works consistently to achieve his goals. His idea is to govern Bulgaria, through a coalition, party or movement, which he will recognize in the next elections and through which he will form a government.
By the way, in any normal democratic country with a longer tradition, running for president like Radev’s would be an absolute scandal, I mean his personal life, love with a subordinate, divorce, marriage to ex-lover. People with healthy families, with many children, generally rise as heads of state. But in our country, since Prime Minister Sergei Stanishev appeared alone on a motorcycle, a tradition of rupture with the family has begun as a legitimizing factor in politics, as a sign of responsibility, of tranquility. When the divorced, the single, and the maidens displaced the married from Bulgarian politics, we entered such acute confrontation and intolerance.
– Will the new budget, which the Minister of Finance described as anti-pandemic and his pre-election critics, will quell society’s discontent?
– I would call this budget Borisov’s will. Something like: hack you! Unleashing the state money bag in this way means for Borisov: I will give money to the people, and then you will think about him! This is what he tells the next rulers, this is my reading. If the budget were pre-electoral, Borisov would be more moderate, he would think about his next term. For the moment, this overspending means – borrowing a little from the treasury, after accumulating a 10-year credit rating, which it does not want to give to the next, its critics.
Therefore, the next rulers will have challenges to solve. In my opinion, this is Borisov’s logic.
Unfortunately, this money, when per capita payments rise, instead of staying in the Bulgarian economy, goes largely to fast-moving goods, which are mainly in the hands of foreign chains. Therefore, we will not have a livelihood in the economy, we will have an increase in consumption that will flow.
– You say spend like the last – does Borisov GERB not think to win the next election, at least a little?
– GERB may win the next elections, but that does not mean that it will form a government. Even if they are the leading political force, it is very likely that GERB will find itself in the same isolation as in 2013: all the other parties will not enter a coalition with them to form a cabinet. GERB will rule out the option of a coalition with the MRF, which for them is a political death.
Therefore, the mandate to form a cabinet will likely go to the BSP, regardless of whether it is the first or the second political force. In my opinion, Borissov and GERB are preparing to be in opposition. This will be a test of whether they will resist the pressure from Tsvetanov, whether GERB will turn the coalition with the UDF into a center of attraction for the right, after Democratic Bulgaria abandons it.
Most likely, in the next government we will see a coalition around the BSP, probably with the DB, with Maya Manolova. Perhaps with a presidential formation.
For now, the setup is unclear – if with the Poison Trio, if the “Vasil Levski” committee. However, here is a great unknown: the main problem of the BSP is President Radev: if he enters with his project, the largest bank of votes will be the BSP electorate.
Slavi Trifonov is likely to support a coalition cabinet without formally entering government.
– Can we spiral into another election in the Italian version?
– No, because in our country it is not necessary to have a majority in parliament to govern. It is possible for a seemingly unstable coalition to serve a full term.
– What will be the political destiny of Borisov from now on?
– In my opinion, he himself will retire from active politics, as promised.
As for the confrontation with Radev in the presidential elections, Borisov does not need it. And in my opinion, Borissov is difficult to see in the position of president, this position does not tempt him. He probably sees his post as prime minister as the end of his enviable political career.
It is no coincidence that it took his opponents 10 years to break his image as a savior. We have never had one so widely approved in modern history, and for so long. This is due to its role as a balancer: this is the leitmotif of its management both nationally and abroad. This keeps him in politics. Politicians who build bridges triumph in our country, they unite.
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