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The report “Register of ecological threats-2020” published in September, which predicts a catastrophic scenario of “migration of people” as a consequence of the climate crisis, as well as the shortage of water and food, received a wide resonance in Europe. in the countries of Asia and Africa.
The report was prepared by international research centers: the Institute for the Economy and Peace (IEP) and the Institute for Climate and Peace. The publication coincides with the fifth anniversary of the “great” refugee crisis of 2015, which shook Europe. The report is imbued with a sense of threat looming over the world and Western civilization, first of all, the refugee problem is closely related to the extremely urgent issue of the environment, writes the Russian portal InoSMI, cited by the FOCUS news agency.
Main findings of the report:
yes As a result of the environmental crisis, the number of “climate” refugees in the world could reach 1.2 billion by mid-century.
Yes, 19 countries have already become centers of greater migratory risk amid the deepening of the environmental crisis. These include Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, India, Pakistan, and Chad.
yes The greatest environmental threat looms over countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, which also have the highest birth rates in the world.
yes By 2040, up to 5.4 billion people, more than half the world’s population, will live in 59 countries with severe water shortages, including the “demographic giants” India and China.
yes In 2050, 3.5 billion people will experience food shortages, which is 1.5 billion more than today.
yes The struggle for resources, the scarcity of water and food will inevitably create an explosive social situation in the countries of Asia and Africa, which will lead to massive population migrations towards the developed countries.
The report’s authors conclude that more than 1 billion people already live in countries that generally cannot withstand new environmental threats and that will become the source of mass migration for the next 30 years. The countries of Africa, the Middle East and Central America have the greatest migratory potential. It is in these countries that changes in the environment and natural disasters are likely to lead to massive displacement, which will threaten regional and global stability.
Migratory flows will flow mainly towards Europe and North America, where the environmental situation will be much better. Europe was already facing a major migration crisis in 2015, when two million people, mostly from Syria and Iraq, devastated by the war, arrived on the old continent. The waves of new migration will inevitably exacerbate the political and social situation in developed countries.
Steve Killeli, founder and director of the Institute for the Economy and Peace, said:
“Environmental change and climate change pose a serious challenge to world peace. Unless urgent action is taken, food and water shortages will worsen significantly in the next 30 years, leading to social protests, riots and armed conflict. The current COVID-19 epidemic has already shown how easy it is to break ties in global food chains. “
Environmental threats will be particularly strong in countries with high fertility rates, such as Nigeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, and Uganda. They already suffer from a lack of resources and growing poverty.
The Institute noted the following group of problems:
yes lack of food
The world demand for food will increase by 50% by 2050, while the world population will grow by 3.5 billion people. Without a solution to the global food problem, food problems will arise in many regions, mainly in Africa.
if water shortage
During the last decade, the number of conflicts in the world related to the fight for water resources has increased by 270%. We are talking mainly about Yemen and Iraq, but dozens of countries are already involved in the fight for water resources, including Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan and China. The problem of water supply is acute in almost all the countries of the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and even in several European countries, such as Spain and Greece.
yes Natural disasters
Global warming, droughts, earthquakes, hurricanes and floods are increasingly affecting the lives of people in developing countries, causing migration and flight to overcrowded cities, which are becoming hotbeds of social conflict.
The report on environmental and migration threats was received with hostility by representatives of liberal and human rights organizations in Europe, who saw it as an “alarmist” attempt to prevent the reception of refugees in developed countries.
Liberals accused the authors of the document of “unscientific methods.” However, the facts speak for themselves: the report is based on reliable statistics from the Migration Monitoring Center, including those caused by environmental and political factors, the editors of the portal explained.
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