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According to the mathematical model, SIR are made forecasts for different countries in Singapore survey
The intense interest of the 24-hour site sparked the post “When will the infection die” for calculations by scientists in Singapore for 85 countries. However, Bulgaria is not on the list, and all of its neighbors are.
The study is from the Singapore University of Technology and Design’s Data-Driven Innovation Laboratory (SUTD).
The laboratory employs 17 scientists. 24 hours wrote an electronic request for more information. At the laboratory site, they suggest that they be included in monitoring at the request of a country.
Scientists analyze large amounts of data and use the SIR mathematical model, whose equations include people who are susceptible to the disease, infected, and recovered.
According to the forecast, for example, northern Macedonia will face the infection on June 17 and Greece on July 12.
The authors warn that their monitoring may have errors due to the constantly changing situation in each country. They also warn that excess optimism is risky.
“24 hours” contacted Bulgarian scientists for comment and forecast: Professor Nikolay Vitanov of BAS, who makes mathematical models for the headquarters of national operations, and with BAS economists, who recently announced three scenarios for the development of the crisis in our country.
Prof. Nikolay Vitanov: between June 6 and 19, if we follow the measures
“I will not go into detail, but in these models it is important how the parameters will be put. We also have such calculations, but with more sophisticated models.” Therefore, Prof. Nikolay Vitanov, who does the mathematical modeling for the National Operations Headquarters, commented on the Singapore team’s forecasts.
“I can’t comment on the numbers, but remember what the second thing I said on March 19. It was: FOLLOW THE MEASURES and in two and a half and three months we will be done with the medical part of the crisis. If it counts two months and average from March 19, is between June 6 and 19. So, somewhere around the dates of Croatia and northern Macedonia. But this only on condition that the measures are observed, “said the Professor Vitanov.
According to him, the model used by Singapore is in effect when there is no government intervention with restrictive measures and the epidemic is allowed to develop until it reaches its peak.
“However, in Bulgaria there was massive state intervention and this increased the resistance forces of society. And when there is massive government intervention, the epidemic” breathes at the crossroads. “
According to Professor Vitanov, the other danger is people returning from western countries, among whom are infected people. “We are very fortunate that the district health inspection teams can immediately catch and limit outbreaks in the country. Because in Western Europe the epidemic is spinning,” says the mathematician.
According to him, the measures in Bulgaria “buy time” because it is expected in the coming months, not so much because of the warm and sunny climate, but also because of the increase in people’s natural immunity to limit the development of the epidemic. Biologists hoping to find a cure or vaccine for the virus, Professor Vitanov recalled.
The mathematician added that if the measures outlined by the headquarters are disciplined, in July and August there is hope of going to sea.
Associate Professor Dr. Viktor Yotsov: We are probably not in the study because there are few cases in our country.
The prediction from Singapore University of Technology and Design of where my infection will end seems frivolous and very conditional, it is more realistic to indicate a date than a date.
This was said by associate professor Victor Yotsov of the BAS Institute for Economic Research. He is one of the authors of the report, according to which the most probable scenario in our country is the peak of the disease in late June and mid-July.
According to him, in Bulgaria there is no clear picture of the disease due to the small number of tests.
“When we compare ourselves to other countries in the pandemic, the focus is on deaths. Good thing they have a few: 66. But with so little information, what can be done? And I suppose one of the reasons for not attending to this study is this, “said associate professor Yotsov.
In our three scenarios on when Bulgaria will emerge from the pandemic, we explicitly stated that it depends on the duration of the restrictive measures; This is what interests us as economists. When such measures suppress the spread of infection, it reaches a long plateau and not a peak in development. In my opinion, we want to achieve this: a long period, two months with low morbidity, so as not to overload the health system. And in the summer, when it’s hot, loosen the measures, these are our hopes, said associate professor Yotsov.
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