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The parliament building PHOTO: Nikolay Litov
Seven parties will enter the new parliament if elections are held today, according to a Gallup International poll commissioned by Bulgarian National Radio.
Based on the results, voters can be expected in a wide range around the range between 2.6 and 2.9 million people.
Declarative activity based on real voters in the country is 50%, but according to official lists it is expected to be significantly lower, for example, in the range closer to 40%.
However, activity forecasts are extremely difficult and severe fluctuations outside these limits are not excluded. A minimum of voters are expected to say “I do not support anyone.”
The votes cast to parties, coalitions and candidates, if the elections were held today, show the following table in the last days of the campaign.
28.2% would vote for GERB and UDF, 20.8% for BSP. These are the first two formations.
12.9% is expected for “There are such people” and 12.7% for MRF. At this stage, it is practically impossible to determine which of the two parties will finish in third place, it all depends on the different types of mobilization in both parties.
“Democratic Bulgaria” with 6.1%, the formation “Stand up! Mutri, out!” With 5.2% and VMRO with 4.4% are close to each other and not far from the potential advantage. The prospects of these formations depend entirely on the last days and even the last hours, as well as the size of the barrier and the degree of “firmness” of the electorate.
These are the seven formations that would be in parliament if the elections were now.
However, the last days and hours can make a difference. For example, the Will-NFSB coalition has 3% and will expect a lower barrier and a predictable vote.
With 1.6% it is “Vazrazhdane”, with 1.4% – ABV, with 1.3% it is the formation of Tsvetan Tsvetanov, with 0.6% it is “Attack” and so on. 1.8% are likely to vote for other parties.
The survey, conducted for the Bulgarian National Radio in the period from March 24 to 31, was conducted among 1,013 adult Bulgarians and shows the structure of electoral attitudes.
The big question is what kind of public procurement the Bulgarian people will give their political elite, Gallup CEO Parvan Simeonov said in an interview with BNR.
“Be it an order of predictability or an order of change, be it an order to later form a government, a crooked left or an order to go to new elections.”
The post-election campaign will be more interesting than the pre-election, predicts Simeonov. He did not rule out tensions on election day, including protests over the nervous atmosphere.
Our campaign seems slow because we cannot distinguish it from the general election context in which we have been living since the summer, believes Parvan Simeonov.
I do not think that these elections are dramatically different in terms of honesty from any other election, he emphasized.
“National elections are difficult to steal and spin this way. In local elections, it is different, because the smallest voices there can influence. “
“The coronavirus led to even higher expectations of activity at the beginning of the campaign. Now the elections are at the highest points or on the plateau, as the Headquarters says, of the cases. There is no way to estimate exactly what the activity will be. It can vary in very unstable parameters, it can vary in a very stable way ”, commented the sociologist.
The data comes from a face-to-face survey with tablets between March 24 and March 31 among 1,013 people, commissioned by the Bulgarian National Radio. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is ± 3.1% for 50%.
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